How to Green the Grid by 2035 with Patrick Hogan of Black & Veatch | EP174

Also, it's going to be fun to see the role of EVs as a mobile battery. And people returning surplus electricity at certain price points back to the grid very randomly. And the grid is going to have to accept that juice and take and take it and do something with it as well. So that's going to be kind of another area where we need a much more intelligent grid and a lot more charging infrastructure than we've seen before. Are you speeding the energy transition? Here at the Clean Power Hour,

our hosts, Tim Montague and John Weaver bring you the best in solar batteries and clean technologies every week, I want to go deeper into decarbonisation. We do too. We're here to help you understand and command the commercial, residential and utility, solar, wind and storage industries. So let's get to it. Together, we can speed the energy transition.

Today, on the Clean Power Hour, the electric report by Black and Veatch, the world's largest employee owned EPC, engineering, procurement and construction firm, based in Kansas here in the United States, very well known in the world of renewable energy, check out all of our content at cleanpowerhour.com Give us a rating and a review on Apple and Spotify so that others can find this content. And please suggest the show to a friend. That's the best thing you can do to help others find the Clean Power Hour connect with me on LinkedIn and at cleanpowerhour.com. With that, I want to welcome Patrick Hogan, the chief client officer for Black and Veatch to the show. Welcome, Patrick.

Great to be here. Thanks for having us.

I had the pleasure of working with your colleague, Leslie ponder on a panel recently. And so it's great to have Black and Veatch on the show. And, you know, it is heady days, we have the infrastructure bill, we have the IRA, a lot of good foundations for the energy transition, I like to say, you know that the energy transition is going to happen. Whether we like it or not, there's economics are on our side now, right? Solar, wind and batteries are the are the cheapest sources of power on the grid. And there's plenty of financial resources in the economy to invest in those resources. Meanwhile, as we electrify everything, meaning transportation, heavy industry and HVAC, we're gonna need, you know, two to three times more electricity on the grid. So a lot more grid infrastructure. So it's, it's really game on in the energy sector. But Patrick, give our listeners a little background on yourself. How did you come to Black and Veatch, and, you know, if if the energy transition is a particular interest of yours, how did you get interested in that?

Sure thing, Tim. So, Black and Veatch, as you said, is one of the kind of globally ranked engineering design and consulting firms and we kind of help our clients built this critical infrastructure that changes the way the world relies on, you know, energy, clean water and instant connectivity. And we've been doing that now for nearly 108 years, believe it or not to do that. So we're always changing and always evolving. And that, for me was the excitement about joining Black and Veatch earlier this year. My background, Tim, I'm a chemist, I tried to change the world, a molecule, you know, at a time, and realize there's a lot more to get done. And I've worked both offshore and onshore and then got progressively closer to how the molecules get turned into electrons, and the last few years, really working in the kind of built environment, about lowering our energy envelope. And then my last week was with the Honeywell group, working on the climate tech investments. So working with a lot of startups in which was a lot of fun learning about where that is going and how to help accelerate the decarbonization market to do that. Black and Veatch, you know, Tim, we've been working on all things, decarbonisation electrification and grid modernization. And so that kind of really helps us I think, with our perspectives about how the market is working and where things aren't both technically and commercially working at the rock face there with many of our leading investors in this area.

So Black and Veatch has published a report the 2023 electric report, I've never seen this report before. I've you know, reviewed the executive summary. It's, you know, it's a nice, very nicely designed, easy to read report about grid, the grid infrastructure, you surveyed a bunch of stakeholders and maybe you can clarify for our listeners, who those stakeholders are roughly and then you break down all kinds of results and what their priorities are. You know, for example, there's there's a growing trend that utility interested parties are very concerned about D ours distributed energy resources that solar wind and batteries. And this includes utility and distributed scale resources. And that's fairly new, right? Because solar has just kind of burst onto the scene. I mean, the US industry really took off in 2010. I had the pleasure of meeting a real OG in the US solar Mike Hall, the founder of Anza, and another company called Borrego. And when Mike got into the industry in oh two, there was a megawatt of solar happening in the US market. So that gives people a point of reference, we're now doing 30 gigawatts, just in the US a year. And then some markets like China are doing, I think, upwards of 200 gigawatts a year. So things have changed dramatically in the last 20 years in the US. And then of course, there's this whole electrification trend, which is just kind of an accelerant in a way in terms of the pressures that are going to be felt by grid operators. But what is the how does the report get? Well, what is the survey who is surveyed, and then let's get into some of the results you found.

Nothing. Let's break that down for you, Tim. So first of all, this is our 17th annual survey that we call the Black and Veatch electric report. And it's one of many that we do across all of those infrastructure areas that we mentioned, both green energy, petrochemical, water, etc. We polled over 650 American utility professionals in many different sectors right across the US. And we got their feedback, both scoring against some key areas, but also a lot of kind of firsthand verbatims as well, Tim. So it really becomes a very contemporary view of where the market is today, what people's opportunities and challenges are, and certainly where they're kind of looking for help across many different parts of the decarbonisation. And that grid modernization needs that they have to do that. So as you mentioned, kind of a couple of key areas that are really coming out. First one was for the first time in this 17 year report, Tim, the renewable mix coming into the grid is now the number one concern, as well as also the number one opportunity for our utility providers. And what is eclipsed is the aging infrastructure. So of course that hasn't gone away, we have a, you could argue maybe one of the world's most interesting or legacy oldest systems operating at this critical mass. But really now the infusion of all these green, clean electrons at such a scale is causing a lot of our both concern and opportunity. And as you said, rightly term, it's coupled with this never seen before incentivization, both financial as well as regulatory. And with our regulatory there comes some kind of commitments and concerns that the utilities have to manage. And it's also coming at a time when both the private sector funding is also driving over $140 billion worth of investment. Last year, Tim just in the clean energy sector. So I think our utility partners are hit both sides, right with demands for more and more electrification, as you mentioned, how do we get the US to become carbon zero in its electricity supply by before 2035. That's only 12 years away? So we've got to grow 35% more in that grid to get there, all of it green? And then we have this big concern that came up in the survey about how do I manage the generational mix, as we move from 100% conventional to 100% renewables using things like our dorms, like, you know, like you mentioned are these distributed MCs. And then how do we deal with not only the aging infrastructure, Tim, but also these new regulations. And so a good example of that would be today, there is over 2000 gigawatts of planned power that wants to connect to the US grid. That's more than 35% of what's available today that's been generated. But the average time to get those interconnections approved is something of the order of five years plus, and it's causing tremendous delays term to our network, really adding to their aging, you know, creaking concerns that we have. What is also doing is that the capital investments and now getting in some cases getting shelved or paused as the utility companies or property developers, technology companies are getting concerned about when will this happen as well to do that. So that is a big demand. That is or pressure point. There's been there's going on our system, but it's being pulled through by as you said the tremendous demand to And for all things electric, in our heating and our buildings, you know, transportation, and also our manufacturing sector.

Yeah, let's talk a little more about this 2000 gigawatts. That's a very important statistic. There's a plethora of solar developed solar, wind, and battery storage development happening. There's a lot of points of friction, though, in getting those projects out of the ground and interconnected and permitted, right. And, you know, as a solar progress professional myself, I'm acutely aware that, that that interconnection, point is, is a major source of pain for the industry for the renewables industries, writ large. What do you know, are you able to gather a point of view on that, in particular, because, you know, like you said, Greening the Grid by 2035, is, is a pretty intense mandate. It's only 12 years away, I, I'm struggling sometimes to see how we can possibly do that. And, you know, by the same token, we're down here on the hockey stick, and we are about to go vertical. So there's, there's, it's kind of the best of times the worst of times, but what is what is, what is be envies perspective on on the role of interconnection,

I think it's a critical path, Tim, to make to make this happen. First of all, there's not enough, you know, AC lines, transmission lines, right to, to connect the dots, right between the demand and the consumers and the generation sites to do that. So that's a big, a big part. So we're gonna see a lot more increase in that area, when you start bringing in these intermittent supply sources, wind, solar, etc. It creates new generation patterns that we haven't seen before. So it's also going to see the Advent and the demand for new smart grids, micro grids, kind of a lot more kind of intelligence about how to manage the variability in our grid. And I think also, we're going to see the influx, Tim of a lot of energy storage systems, both chemical and hardware driven, that will really kind of smooth that out and make this a reality. So there's a lot of combinations of both investment and innovation, I've got to happen at the same time.

You said something that that, you know, triggered my interest in a phenomenon. I'm dropping an interview next week, down sorry, this week with Craig Lewis, who is the founder and executive director of an organization called Clean coalition. And the clean coalition is help working with utilities and communities to develop community scale micro grids, to basically evolve the distribution and transmission utility model, whereby utilities can still invest in infrastructure. But it's infrastructure that leads to more resiliency for communities, because it's a community scale micro grid, so that when the big grid goes down, because of a fire, or a flood, or an earthquake or some other catastrophe, you have, you know, sizable communities that can isolate from that grid, and operate with wind, solar and batteries. And this is not only, you know, now technically feasible, but it's also financially feasible. And it's also good for the utilities, it turns out, like they just want to build infrastructure. And and that's kind of in their DNA. But but when you think about, you know, the energy transition, what do you see in terms of community, the opportunity for community scale micro grids.

We're really excited about that area, Tim, and as you said, quite rightly, right, the need to have this more distributed, kind of even off grid supply of energy is super critical, just to enable the limited infrastructure we have today to better deliver what it needs against this. Also, we're excited to because many of these communities, when they do get hit by these weather related impacts or natural disasters, it's typically the more economically deprived part of the city that kind of recovers slowest, right and gets the kind of longest return back to normality as well. So we're excited about these systems, being able to kind of create more of an equitable distribution of power to everyone really raise the game in terms of the resiliency that's needed, and it really came out in our survey results. as well, Tim, we saw that more than two thirds now of the American utilities are highly focused on things like climate resiliency modeling, and building in all the kinds of mitigation services post event, as well to do it. Just recently, NOAA, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, posted their August results, Tim, and the US has been hit already by 15, one $5 billion plus weather related or natural disaster events. And that doesn't include the two big disasters just recently, in Maui in Florida, there with fires and hurricanes, that's well over $25 billion worth of damage done to our communities done predominantly to our power supplies. So this is an area where these micro grids and all the intelligence that goes with it is super critical, I think, to creating the resiliency that we need for our for our schools, for our, for our communities, for our manufacturing, and just for just life in general.

Let's talk about a few of the other particulars that you touch on in this report, for one would love to talk a little bit about the hydrogen economy. Like to talk more about resiliency, of course, topics like cybersecurity and electrification of transportation. And we could start anywhere that that you see, you see fit. And obviously it's you know, things like hydrogen, are involved in many sectors of the economy that could be hydrogen could play a role in resiliency. It there already is a hydrogen economy, mostly related to fossil fuels and chemicals. But that's going to be part of, you know, electrification of transportation, for example. But yeah, well, I mean, maybe maybe you could comment on on the hydrogen economy, what is what is BNB seeing on the opportunity for hydrogen, we have

we saw it come out in our survey results, as well as our own perspectives on that it's really a growing area of technology evaluation now by the utilities and other kinds of power related sectors, probably more so than we've seen in previous years. We're moving through the colors in the rainbow of hydrogen, as you mentioned, so we're moving from gray and blue, which is kind of still pretty heavily dependent on on carbon related methane related ways of generating hydrogen to now green, which is converting green electrons with simple water electrolyzing and creating this green hydrogen. What we like about it, Tim, is that it really kind of generates the power on demand where it's needed. So you can substitute the legacy carbon electrons for green ones real time, because it's a chemical storage, think of it as a chemical battery, you can also use it to create that dispatchable power 24/7. Because it's a safe molecule to transport as well. I can take it to places or even other countries where they don't have the same availability of getting green power, as well. And so that's actually easing term, not only the, the kind of needs for green power, but even kind of this anxiety about global energy security as well. To do that. Today, Black and Veatch is working on over 200 Hydrogen projects worldwide. So we're very bullish, and we're building the world's biggest green production of hydrogen and storage in Utah. And that's going to generate over 300 gigawatt hours of power, starting with blending clean, green clean, hydrogen produced locally, and supplying over, you know, millions and millions of customers in both the Utah and Los Angeles basin there as well to do that, and that's going to be blended in with natural gas. So what we saw with our customers, technology perspectives, huge focus on bringing in more utility scale solar, to the grid, a lot of still interest around these these buffer sources, particularly as I mentioned, LNG, or liquefied natural gas, Tim, we also saw the rise of small modular nuclear. So people kind of taking that now very seriously about these SMR nuclear opportunities, the rise of hydrogen, both as a chemical way to kind of generate power on demand, but also to give you that long term duration storage that's hyper needed as well. So lots of great balancing the bets and we're very keen, you know, we're very keen with our utility partners, that they're creating this broad portfolio of long term and short range technology assessments. I think the way we looked at it, Tim, was they went from being kind of curious to now kind of mildly optimistic about the technical and the commercial feasibility of hydrogen, but we're very bullish, just given the number of projects and customers. As you said, there's already an economy here that's working. And as we get bigger in the scale, the prices are coming down equivalent to the parody that you would expect.

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Yeah, we're very aligned. Tim, there, I think in the need for all of those areas. I mean, still, as I mentioned, don't forget the role, I think of natural gas to be this kind of buffer that I think starts to bring the scale down, just like you mentioned, with the ACES project, that blended mix of new molecule with old molecule, I think, is also going to help us get to that lower cost of, you know, kind of equivalised energy energy costs. And just in the same way, we saw it with the solar kind of cost curve coming down over many years, as well. And we got to do this with them without regulations. And with and without the kind of incentive, as, you know, to kind of get to that level of confidence around it, you know, as a technology advocate, and a company that is always working, kind of first of the kind, we like to kind of spread our bets and work with our clients across many different kinds of return investment cycles. There, Tim to do that we've even seen another demand for bringing in the use of ammonia, which is another kind of green molecule to help kind of reduce the amount of coal fired power generation. So kind of bringing ammonia and coal together. That's another way to kind of reduce the carbon and the emissions issues as well in our global power systems as well. So at It's really just have this open mindset, Tim, and it's working, the economics is getting better. The technology is getting of scale. And we're kind of working every day with OEMs, and utilities, and big program developers to kind of scale up, create that modular approach, and get the performance data that everyone needs to be more confident. So people like yourself, I think can can get behind the data, get behind the science.

In our last few minutes together, Patrick, I'd like to talk about a topic that's a little more esoteric, and then maybe rounded out with a quick conversation about electrification of transportation. But your report covers cybersecurity and anyone who really does a deep dive on grid infrastructure, whether that's legacy infrastructure, or, you know, future technologies, wind solar batteries, recognizes that cybersecurity is a major concern for grid infrastructure. And I, you know, it is one of the things that keeps me up at night, so to speak, the thought that a foreign power could take down the United States grid if the grid goes down. Okay, if there's a catastrophic event, whether it's, you know, a storm from the sun, right, a solar storm, or some manmade catastrophe, if the grid goes down and cannot be rebuilt in any timely manner, people starve on mass. It's a cataclysmic event for humanity. We're so dependent, right on refrigeration, on transportation, on lighting, etc. For our everyday economy. The economy is so dependent on the grid and our and our personal well being is just completely tied to that in the West, certainly. But what did b and V learn about cyber? And do you have any, any potions for me so that I'm so that I'm not having these nightmares at night?

Well, I think your your ways to be concerned, Tim, I mean, just in the last six months, for the first six months of this year, I think the US electricity grid had attenex, intentional cyber hacking activity rise, right. So that's pretty scary. Right? So you're absolutely right, it's very much a target. I think the good news is the utilities have all shown in the survey data from Black and Veatch, the their interest levels, their awareness, their funding has increased, and that they are really understanding, I think, this this, the levels of vulnerability that the aged as well as the new equipment has brought in, we're seeing a couple of things, Tim, that are really driving more, I think confidence, the the time to vet new equipment or new software to be cyber secure, is rapidly reducing meaning the industry is getting smarter about bringing in smart, resilient, you know, kind of rugged technology that works at scale at this industrial national level. To do that, we did feel though that there was a level of overconfidence to be clear. And I think that we felt that people couldn't, for instance, Tim recognize how much of their budget was being spent on cyber defense. And whether they were using the latest frameworks that were kind of meeting the kind of national recommendations from various Homeland Security and other kinds of organizations. So that is a concern. The potion, we would argue that there are companies like ourselves that can help you take a cyber resiliency assessment today, get a baseline Tim of where you are, where you need to be relative to where you think you should be. We'll also share with you that delta, where you should be based on the latest recommendations and standards, as well as do that kind of bad actor, good actor testing of your system to do that. But this is an area absolutely right. Tim, you cannot take it for granted. The state of the art is highly advanced in terms of the malicious acts that are out there, whether it's fishing for your customer data and their privacy data, all the way through to a denial of the grid supply to do that. So we see this as one of the biggest vectors that has to be addressed. And as we bring new technologies that have never been seen before into the grid, we're going to create new sources of potential vulnerability as well as new forms of protection for the grid as well.

Well said. So, electrification of transportation, you know transportation has a huge carbon footprint something like 40% I think of co2 E is related to transportation and the economics of of just electric vehicles. For example, cars and trucks are such that you know, sometime in the next five to 10 years, those those electric vehicles which are which have a slight premium today are going to be more cost effective than internal combustion engine vehicles. And so consumers are just going to go on mass Right? in droves. This happens faster in places where energy is more expensive, because it is much more economical to operate a car or truck on electricity than it is on gasoline, or diesel. But here in the United States, we're relatively slow adopter, we just passed the 5%. Mark, I think in 2023, now that new car sales have have reached the 5%. Mark. And that's great. We just need you know, for more doublings and we'll and we'll reach that 100%. Mark. But what did you learn about electrification? That is interesting to our listeners.

Yeah, the electrification of transportation is arguably the biggest demand on our grid. Here in the States, Tim Bloomberg kind of predicts by 2035. So again, not too far away, more than 50% of our vehicles will be some form of electric propulsion that that are active, and have on our streets to do that, like a beach has been involved already in installing well over a third of the Evie infrastructure, charging stations across North America. And that's going to be the biggest hurdle to overcome. Tim is getting just getting access to more and more of that critical infrastructure. And there's a lot of innovation around the charging speed, the access, making it sure that it's always available, and affordable, right to different parts of the world. I think beyond the passenger growth, which is phenomenal. Just think in q2, California, which is a bellwether state for all things, Evie, they grew Evie sales 10 by 70%, compared with q1 this year. So that rate of change is going to put tremendous demand on our infrastructure, the demand for more green electrons, these dispensers that have to work and kind of overcome not only range anxiety, but charging anxiety as well. The biggest change that we see is this commercial fleet scenario. As more and more trucking and logistics companies become electric. We're seeing some great results lately about the efficiencies there that has to have different kinds of charging infrastructure for different use cases, different shifts that we haven't seen before. Also add on things like off road vehicles, both in our docks, mining, etc, that's going to create even more demand as well in there from the transportation area. Also, it's going to be fun to see the role of EVs as a mobile battery. And people returning surplus electricity at certain price points back to the grid very randomly, and the grid is going to have to accept that juice and take and take it and do something with it as well. So that's going to be kind of another area where we need a much more intelligent grid, and a lot more charging infrastructure than we've seen before to do that. So transportations number one Tim, followed by number two in our survey was manufacturing sector. Think of a lot more onshoring here in the States chip manufacturer, those Evie battery manufacturing, very energy intense systems. And then just like you and I here are using cloud storage to have a zoom call, the rise of data storage and things like chat GPT is using eight to 10 times more electricity per computation than then traditional calculations as well. So we're gonna see tremendous amount more demand. And then lastly, it's the rise of the commercial and residential building that is 100%, electric, all appliances, heating, air conditioning, etc. So tremendous growth that we've never seen before creating new markets, also some new challenges on our grid as we modernize and decarbonize.

And do you have a statistic, I like to say two to three times as much electricity we will consume once we make the transition to electrifying everything. But do you? Have you guys quantified that? Because that's always of interest to me? Yeah, I

think I think we're seeing similar numbers, I've seen three to 410. I've seen a number in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that needs to get spent, as well as a kind of if that helps you give kind of more of a scale of the of the size of the prize in order to get to a net zero economy, somewhere in that 2040 to 2050 range, as well at a global level. So that's, you know, a lot of stuff to be done a lot of infrastructure that's needed, and certainly a lot of technologies that have to be assessed. And let's leverage those $96 billion worth of federal US funds that have been set aside for all things electric grid as well.

Well, we're out of time, but I want to thank you, Patrick, for coming on the show today. Patrick Hogan, and please check out all of our content at cleanpowerhour.com Give us a rating and review on Apple and Spotify. Those two platforms in particular are the best way to help others find the content, check out our YouTube channel, we're dropping two videos a week, soon more. And reach out to me on LinkedIn. I love to hear from my listeners and love chatting you up. So I will definitely respond. If you reach out to me, you can also reach out at the website cleanpowerhour.com. With that, I want to encourage our listeners to check out this report. If you just Google Black and Veatch electric report, you will find the website the website is bv.com. Very simple URL. And how can our listeners find you Patrick?

I think bv.com All through LinkedIn. Look forward to hearing from from from your listeners, Tim, and thank you for the opportunity. Really appreciate all the great work and innovation and insights that you're sharing to the industry.

And we will put a link to the report in the show notes as well. So you can find the show notes at Cleanpowerhour.com. I want to thank Patrick Hogan, Chief client officer for Black and Veatch for coming on the show today. Been a pleasure, Tim. Thank you. So let's go solar and storage. I'm Tim Montague, take care. Hey, listeners. This is Tim, I want to give a shout out to all of you. I do this for you twice a week. Thank you for being here. Thank you for giving us your time. I really appreciate you and what you're all about. You are part and parcel of the energy transition, whether you're an energy professional today, or an aspiring energy professional. So thank you, I want to let you know that the Clean Power Hour has launched a listener survey. And it would mean so much to me. If you would go to cleanpowerhour.com. Click on the About Us link right there on the main navigation that takes you to the about page. And you'll see a big graphic listener survey, just click on that graphic, and it takes just a couple of minutes. If you fill out the survey, I will send you a lovely baseball cap with our logo on it. The other thing I want our listeners to know is that this podcast is made possible by corporate sponsors. We have chint power systems, the leading three phase string inverter manufacturer in North America. So check out CBS America. But we are very actively looking for additional support to make this show work. And you see here our media kit. With all the sponsor benefits and statistics about the show. You know we're dropping two episodes a week. We have now over 320,000 downloads on YouTube. And we're getting about 45,000 downloads per month. So this is a great way to bring your brand to our listeners and our listeners are decision makers in clean energy. This includes projects executives, engineers, finance, project management, and many other professionals who are making decisions about and developing, designing, installing and making possible clean energy projects. So check out cleanpowerhour.com both our listener survey on the about us and our media kit and become a sponsor today. Thank you so much. Let's go solar and storage