Dec. 6, 2022

Clean Power Hour LIVE December 1, 2022

Clean Power Hour LIVE December 1, 2022
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On the weekly clean power news and views, we bring you the latest cleantech and clean energy news,  thought leaders, and innovators. Our motto is ‘Speeding the Energy Transition!’

This week John Weaver and I discuss,
1. Pepsi getting the first of their original order delivered (maybe today?) Tesla Semi even today - musk suggests 50,000 units/year
2. Volvo launches first semi-made with fossil-free steel
3. Europe (and Germany specifically) pushing back against the US IRA incentives - the solar and hydrogen both, now considering their own incentives - would be great to have a solar/wind/battery arms race
4. European group plus QCells coming together for a perovskite+silicon development
5. First solar cell factory (modules too) in the USA for a decade announced - Enel 3 GW up to 6 GW
6. Pricing of solar module supply chain components finally coming down as the price of silicon eases
7. A bad job of solar O&M - one of the modules collapsed.

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The Clean Power Hour hosts and cleantech professionals Tim Montague and John Weaver (the Commercial Solar Guy) bring you the latest solar, wind, and energy storage news.

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The Clean Power Hour is produced by the Clean Power Consulting Group and created by Tim Montague. Please subscribe on your favorite audio platform and on Youtube: bit.ly/cph-sub | www.CleanPowerHour.com | contact us by email:  CleanPowerHour@gmail.com | Speeding the energy transition!

WEBVTT

00:00:51.200 --> 00:00:58.130
Welcome to the Clean Power Hour live December 1 2022, years almost over, how are you, John?

00:00:59.570 --> 00:01:07.010
Oh, Tim, what a great question. You're laughing there. Because, you know, I got a lot going on and I'm terribly stressed about so many things.

00:01:07.579 --> 00:01:10.430
You're you're still breathing, you're still

00:01:09.780 --> 00:01:27.810
Still breathing, still breathing. That's and a breathing, year, there's lots of things going on I you know, solar projects have challenges, you know, just taken on, probably a little more work than I should.

00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:32.609
Outside of solar construction and just trying to do as best I could, but world is busy man.

00:01:32.730 --> 00:01:49.289
And it's the entity or and sometimes modules don't show up sometimes. panelboards don't show up. Sometimes. disconnects get delayed for a third time, Timothy. Two disconnects, delayed for a third time, Timothy. Oh, it's got to take care of us. I

00:01:49.430 --> 00:01:53.180
hope I hope Santa is listening. And he's gonna bring you some distance

00:01:54.590 --> 00:02:05.629
for Chris, is that within Santa? Is does does Santa Claus have solar disconnects AC and DC disconnects within his scope of delivery says

00:02:05.629 --> 00:02:07.700
that's that's what Santa does, dude.

00:02:08.329 --> 00:02:23.870
I hope he's I hope it's real. I was. So I will digress a tiny bit. I did Thanksgiving with a family had about 18 of us together was really nice. And had my brother's four little kids.

00:02:20.000 --> 00:02:26.449
They're running around. And, and there was a discussion about whether Santa Claus was real.

00:02:26.750 --> 00:02:38.300
And it was Oh, yeah. And this eight year old was telling the five year old that stuff is fake. And then the five year old was like, I already knew it was fake. And it's just like, Oh,

00:02:38.900 --> 00:02:48.409
who's cute? You know, we do we start lying to our fellow humans at an early age. And Fake news is real.

00:02:48.620 --> 00:02:57.439
Right? Like that is the it's that store. That ability we have to fool ourselves is very deep.

00:02:53.329 --> 00:02:59.539
And we do it around a lot of things. Not just Santa Claus.

00:03:00.979 --> 00:03:07.189
We think we think solar projects are going to close when the probability of them is pretty low. Sometimes

00:03:07.308 --> 00:03:10.038
we're not going to talk about that we're not going to talk about that.

00:03:10.609 --> 00:03:14.899
The life of a salesperson, Timothy, the life of sales. It's good.

00:03:15.379 --> 00:04:16.399
There are crazier things happening in the world than disconnects not not showing up. Yes, our friend Elon Musk has, I think broken the land speed record for a crazy town with his shenanigans with Twitter, and you know, going to war with Apple and then kissing and making up with Tim Cook yesterday, I was glad to see Tim Cook held out an olive branch to to Ilan. But as we were saying, also, you know, these guys live in in the matrix and and I think they think it's kind of entertaining, right? And and we're just we're just pawns by it. Or not, you can choose to, to, to, you know, go off the platform and not watch the shenanigans. I tell I tell my friends and family I went to visit my family over Thanksgiving too. And my sister in law likes to give me a hard time she goes so how's that?

00:04:12.349 --> 00:04:24.680
How's that Elon working out for you? Because I'm a I'm a Tesla, Tesla investor, Tesla fan all the way I do believe in Tesla.

00:04:21.259 --> 00:04:48.860
And we're going to talk about the semi here in a second. I think the Twitter play is all about making more money to go to Mars, or making more influence to make more money to go to Mars. And he doesn't like to talk about that. Because that sounds crazy to most people, not to you and I we understand that mission. It's not complicated.

00:04:48.860 --> 00:04:54.980
Actually, it's just a mission to go further than we might go as a single planet species, right?

00:04:52.129 --> 00:05:22.129
We'll go further. If we go to two planets, will we go to three or four? It's gonna be very hard to go to two, it's going to be very, very expensive. And that's why Elon is trying to make money with things like neural link and boring company. And you know, right. And he is a genius but he's also crazier than all get out. And they you know, I get it why advertisers want nothing to deal with him. He's crazy.

00:05:22.279 --> 00:05:39.529
Letting let it letting Donald Trump back on the platform is a horrible idea. It's a private company this BS about oh, we're gonna save free speech. That is a bunch of BS I'm sorry. Twitter can't save free speech any more than your your I can't John Weaver. Yeah,

00:05:39.950 --> 00:06:07.580
I I've lost a tiny bit of energy. You know, I used to post significantly to Twitter. And I've lost a tiny bit of energy, a decent amount of energy actually. Yeah. Um, and it's just it's affecting my, it actually has a knock on effect, because usually my reading of the News gives me good energy because I'm like, Oh, look what I just found. Look at this little infant information I just found, let me share it with the people who are also interested in solar news.

00:06:07.970 --> 00:06:16.460
And I've, you know, worked hard to get a bunch of them on Twitter. And there's lots of people who want to know about Solar Tech solar noon, solar prices, hardware manufacturing.

00:06:17.330 --> 00:07:55.820
And this little dance has affected me to some degree. It's not, you know, it's, it's just affected me it's got a it's, it's, it's in my head. Some of the some of the things that Musk does some of the people he associates with some of his political opinions. I, I disagree with his categorizations of just of how the political spectrum has been displayed on Twitter. There's plenty of research that shows different political ideologies being pushed in different volumes on Twitter, as a result of the algorithms and and it's, it's, you know, he says things he doesn't say things that are necessarily the truth, he doesn't say things that are necessarily going to happen right away. He is there to troll the world, and get people to pay attention because he saw that Twitter was profitable. During Donald Trump's first two years, that was the first time Twitter was ever profitable, was during Donald Trump going nuts on Twitter. And then as Donald Trump people realise he was an absolute freak, Twitter numbers Twitter profitability went away again. So I, you know, it's it's a platform for communication amongst people on the planet, and it was a pretty good one. I hope it holds on good, but I do definitely see people reacting differently to it. And I do feel my energy has changed. Similarly to how my energy changed with Facebook, when I used to really enjoy sharing, you know,

00:07:56.419 --> 00:08:12.379
I, when you learn when you learn that the leadership of a company are not necessarily looking out for your best interests, and really just trying to make money. That changes things and, and, you know,

00:08:13.129 --> 00:08:19.370
if it was only money, if it was only money, I would have been okay with Facebook, but Facebook got into politics, and

00:08:19.369 --> 00:08:52.578
wings. Yeah. And they sold our information for nefarious purposes to people with the various purposes like, that's not cool, man. Yeah. So Have a little respect. So anyway, let's talk about some ID though. Or whatever they're calling it right. There's a there's there's an electric semi in America now. It's real. It's going to start shipping next year. No. And today, oh, they're going to actually deliver some to customers today.

00:08:52.970 --> 00:09:23.689
i If we saw I did put a link on there for Canary media on our document to talk about it because today is semi day for Tesla, and they will show it off but I'm almost certain that Pepsi Cola will get a Tesla semi maybe it's gonna go today maybe it's gonna get sent next week but but it's coming and it's and supposedly it's real, so not next year. I think Pepsi is getting the first ones now. So if you scroll down a tiny bit, you might have a

00:09:23.689 --> 00:09:32.449
battery powered behemoth with up to 500 mile range is the first time I designed for the start to be from the start to be electric.

00:09:29.059 --> 00:09:34.549
Musk says it's super fun to drive. Well yeah, of course it is.

00:09:36.139 --> 00:09:52.909
It's true. Here we go. So right there Tesla by the end of the year, expects to deploy 15 By the end of this year Okay, so maybe by the end of the year before next year.

00:09:53.089 --> 00:09:57.559
Look at that though Renaud delivers an electric semi to Coca Cola interest. Yes.

00:09:57.860 --> 00:10:21.409
And the one of the following articles I'd like us to look at is at Volvo delivered the first large truck that's made out of fossil fuel steel, fossil fuel free steel, you mean boss? Yes. Pardon me? Pardon me fossil fuel free steel. So, so this is cool. The biggest reason that this is good is pollution.

00:10:22.610 --> 00:10:29.360
These more pollution and more.

00:10:22.610 --> 00:10:38.870
Fossils are used by trucks and large view vehicles by far on a per unit basis than cars in fact, I sometimes occasionally.

00:10:34.819 --> 00:11:28.639
I'm like, Ah, I wish I could better optimise the use of my electric car so that the batteries are used more so that we don't waste this piece of hardware. And the fact that a you know these trucks are gonna get hundreds of 1000s have miles per year, per few years, I think they said three years 750,000 miles. That means that they're going to be offsetting a significantly greater amount of fossil fuels, air pollution, climate change effect. And that's just awesome. And it also seems like hundreds of 1000s of dollars of savings, you know, 200,000 bucks every three years, that covers the cost of the unit. Somewhere in the article, it says the units are 150 to$180,000 per semi. Wow, if you can save that much and fuel in three years, then you're done.

00:11:29.149 --> 00:11:30.949
That's pretty nice and

00:11:30.949 --> 00:11:45.350
positive in three years, that will, that will inspire people to buy these things, for sure. And the bottleneck is not, you know, the stats are great, zero to 1620 seconds, that's three times faster than a diesel truck.

00:11:46.039 --> 00:12:15.559
Drivers are gonna love that they'll get further faster, right? They want to deliver the goods they want to get on. You know, it's my cousin is a truck driver. And, you know, he's constantly complaining about the ride and how uncomfortable and slow and it's just not, you know, it's not a great experience for these drivers. So the bottleneck, though, is getting enough of that built right. Mastering and batteries.

00:12:17.419 --> 00:12:27.559
I had a very interesting conversation yesterday with a company called Olson a LSY. M.

00:12:19.730 --> 00:12:50.600
Check it out. They're making a aqueous battery with manganese as the primary ingredient, not lithium, a completely lithium free chemistry that they claim is going to be good for transportation and stationary storage. I'll believe it when I see it, I guess. Right but but they're they've got pre orders from Evie makers, one in India.

00:12:51.079 --> 00:13:16.879
So anyway, it's nice to see the storage ecosystem diversifying, right? We need more than just lithium iron ore, lithium, cobalt or whatever. Cobalt gotta go by by Cobalt no good. Because it's just concentrated in places, right? Where there's slave labour basically. The Congo that, isn't it?

00:13:17.240 --> 00:13:50.419
It's changing, though. You know, it's, we're finding we're starting to mined cobalt and other places where the volume of the percentage of cobalt that's coming from Congo is going down. But at the same time, there are already lithium phosphate batteries in cars, which don't have any cobalt. The car doesn't have as high of a range, but it's already happening. And most stationary energy storage to the best of my knowledge has zero cobalt. So, you know, it's only the

00:13:50.419 --> 00:13:58.850
hottest there's there's multiple, multiple ways to skin this cat. And, yeah, Cobalt is there are workarounds.

00:13:58.850 --> 00:14:04.759
Right. And oh, yeah. And so that's, that's good. All right.

00:14:04.759 --> 00:14:09.679
Well, let's talk about megawatt class hydrogen fuel cell powertrain. Ooh,

00:14:09.740 --> 00:14:13.339
and shopping for an aeroplane. I just thought it was cool looking.

00:14:13.579 --> 00:14:16.669
Like flying hydrogen power plants, right?

00:14:17.209 --> 00:14:17.839
Yes.

00:14:19.549 --> 00:14:33.620
So this plant, I believe, you know, I found it on LinkedIn to megawatt facility, I guess it's a fuel cell, but the fuel cell drives a jet engine.

00:14:28.129 --> 00:14:50.360
And it's for 40 to 50 passenger plane. And just looking at the unit's cool, you can see it's, it's in pretty much a structure of an aeroplane, probably not a flying aeroplane, but you can tell that what they're trying to create there. And that image is, you know, you can see the wing and everything. And it's quite an

00:14:50.360 --> 00:14:59.659
image. I mean, it looks like it looks like a, an aeroplane engine. Which means yes, it is going to be an aeroplane engine.

00:15:00.409 --> 00:15:15.919
Yeah, I mean, they have an aeroplane surrounding it with wings. It's probably a test facility somewhere. And attack this is actually a conversion kit. And they're trying to turn a regular aeroplane that burns fossils into a hydrogen powered does

00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:18.319
that work though?

00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:19.429
Because the fuel cell produces electricity, John

00:15:21.049 --> 00:15:26.600
Well, the electricity can turn all these different components because if you

00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:33.139
have electricity with driving electric motor, are you saying there's an electric jet engine is that you can make a jet engine that's electric.

00:15:35.329 --> 00:15:39.409
Well, first, I'm gonna respond with something I don't know anything about but aren't all

00:15:40.250 --> 00:15:46.309
aerospace engineer. I think you have another career in your future.

00:15:44.029 --> 00:15:46.309
No,

00:15:46.339 --> 00:16:23.929
no, no, no, I'm barely got one. I got too many right now. So cuz on some solar, I always assume that when the oil and the fuel is burnt somewhere, it's generating electricity because in a car, you burn fuel it spins. You know, you start spinning your pieces. You have your alternator, you know all that stuff is? Yeah, I guess I guess it doesn't actually need the electricity. But, you know, we have the ability to spin a turbine with hydrogen, we have the ability to spin a turbine with fossils, we have the ability to spin it with electric.

00:16:25.370 --> 00:16:39.860
To understand the fuel cell play here. I hadn't heard that you can make an electric jet engine a jet engine is like fundamentally a fossil fuel device. But what it's cool, man, we don't have to we don't have to answer your question.

00:16:39.860 --> 00:17:25.309
No, you might be able to answer that question. Before I forget, check out all of our content at clean power hour.com Clean Power hour.com Give us a rating and review on Apple and Spotify, please leave a review would be amazing. Give us a Christmas gift with a review on Apple or Spotify so others can find this content and help us speed the energy transition. And please subscribe to our YouTube channel. So anything else about hydrogen fuel cell? I mean, I think hydrogen for long distance, air transportation is going to be a thing. Clearly, batteries are not going to be a thing for aircraft. It's just the, you know, they're too heavy. And but hydrogen could work.

00:17:26.450 --> 00:18:01.460
I? Well, I mean, we already have some electric aircraft, very small ones. And there's people in the end, I saw the first flying electric Lear jet type item. So there are some jet engines that are electric in the worlds. And we've seen them and there's actually you can actually buy an electric vehicle, or an electric aeroplane. Well, I don't know if you can buy one, but you can test one or you can put an order in for one. And I've even seen that there are hundreds of electric aeroplanes ordered when I saw something being covered by Bloomberg recently. Oh, so

00:18:01.519 --> 00:18:10.309
200 aircraft are, are definitely going to be a thing you know, so for regional.

00:18:04.910 --> 00:18:19.849
That's wonderful. It just, it just the transatlantic gets, it gets difficult. As I've that's my read, but, you know, time will tell time and time

00:18:19.878 --> 00:18:43.158
where we're early in it. I'm hopeful. I believe that once we and I've seen some people say once we get up to about 400 watts per kilogramme of electricity of usable electricity from batteries. Some have suggested that that's the beginning number for electric large aeroplanes to be useful.

00:19:35.239 --> 00:19:42.739
So, I and you know, there's always the potential that we could make the batteries into the structure of the aeroplane.

00:19:42.979 --> 00:19:57.439
Now, of course, aeroplanes are super, like super thin, ultra optimised. So maybe there's not a lot of structure to be a battery. But I don't know, I, I'll never say no, I'll never say never because I've been wrong so many times over and over and over.

00:19:58.250 --> 00:20:20.000
Think about these pouch batteries. That's the thing, these pouches. So there's two form factors for batteries basically, right? They're cylinders or a variation on a cylinder. You know, some of them are octagonal, or hexagonal. And then there's pouches. And you could make the surface of the aircraft out of a pouch. Right?

00:20:14.569 --> 00:20:24.470
Okay, you need to surface you need to structure so yeah, could do. But

00:20:26.088 --> 00:20:28.038
there's a million reasons why it might not work.

00:20:28.699 --> 00:20:32.719
But all we need is all we need.

00:20:28.699 --> 00:20:44.088
Is it to work once and somebody will. I think somebody listen, the aliens that are visiting us are definitely not using fossils. They might be using Fusion though. So yeah.

00:20:45.108 --> 00:20:59.509
There's aliens among us, John. What do you think Elon is? Well, yeah, he has pretty much said as much as him and him and Kanye.

00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:59.509
Definitely aliens.

00:21:01.818 --> 00:21:05.899
So before we before we jump beyond Well, you know, Kanye neon.

00:21:06.350 --> 00:21:16.100
This is like the transportation edition of the Clean Power Hour. Do you want to talk about Volvo and their green steel? I don't quite understand what Volvo is doing here. But totally,

00:21:17.240 --> 00:21:28.819
totally. Yes. I just want to, I just want to show people the truck and say that this is a truck that's made out of zero. fossil fuel, steel.

00:21:23.600 --> 00:21:38.900
We started making steel, I believe in Sweden, about a year ago. And this truck right here has no fossil fuel steel in it.

00:21:33.860 --> 00:21:42.440
It's just a standard truck and it will it has steel. There's no difference between it and it might even be an electric

00:21:42.470 --> 00:21:44.960
Truck, right?

00:21:42.470 --> 00:21:44.960
That's an electric truck. Yeah.

00:21:44.960 --> 00:21:55.519
So, so So Tesla got beat to the punch though. The semi right by Volvo. And what was the other one the other European maker that we mentioned earlier

00:21:55.548 --> 00:21:59.358
Renault, Renault, Renault Renault Oh, pardon Renu

00:21:59.568 --> 00:22:05.389
it little known French company that doesn't sell cars in America. But anyway, big, big player.

00:22:07.730 --> 00:22:17.539
I also, they also have beat to the pickup the electric pickup by everybody else, too. So they, you know, they made a couple announcements. It's

00:22:17.538 --> 00:22:20.419
a they're waiting.

00:22:17.538 --> 00:22:38.568
They're right. They're busy making threes and wise and the why is now the most popular electric vehicle in most of the world. And will soon be the most popular car probably barnone. In America, I'm I predict. I'm super super. I've been watching.

00:22:34.669 --> 00:23:18.588
I've been following you on Twitter. So I hope you don't go off Twitter just because it allows me to know what the hell John Weaver is up to in the world and have had some charging challenges over the holidays. I know. Yes. Yes. And that is my that is my concern, right? Is that your experience is going to get and you're an early adopter, right? So you're willing, your pain tolerance is way higher than the average consumer yesterday, and the average consumer is going to go holy crap, oh, all these broken charges that aren't working or trying taking 15 minutes to get it to start, who has 15 minutes to plug in, come on.

00:23:19.640 --> 00:25:57.350
Now, this doesn't occur on the Tesla Supercharger network, that's fine. That's, that's a key piece when I used you know, I had Tesla for a year and a quarter. And every time I plugged in, things worked. I can't remember feeling like things ever didn't work. Every single time plug in, click boom, gone. Yeah, you know, now it's a little more complex. And, for instance, the Electrify America, it charged wonderfully the whole time, there was one or two times when it was a little slow, could have been because of the cold and that my car doesn't have a battery pre here. But it had some challenges. And you know, people are gonna want to deal with it. But seeing things like semi trucks on the road, is going to motivate people like and for instance, this Volvo vehicle, the coolest thing about there's two cool things one, the steel was made from hydrogen, the hydrogen, I don't know how the hydrogen was made, probably not via clean electricity yet, but we're working on it. And then the vehicle itself is electric. So I mean, that vehicle from Volvo represents something, the next stage the next thing, more so yet, as of yet than the the semi that's being launched today, by Tesla, more so than by Renault and their cool thing. Not as big as the launch of the model three, because the launch of the model three was a start, really, of the modern electric vehicle taken off maybe the Model S or or y x, or x and the y. But um, so it's, you know, this is going to happen fast, or faster than many of us think we're gonna see a lot of electric cars, we're gonna have to fix that infrastructure. And I'm a pusher of it. You know, I just drove 350 400 miles, took me two charges, because I always, you know, I had to heat up I go 6072 miles an hour. I probably could have got there on one charge if I was Ultra optimised, but I pulled over and slept. But I had multiple times where I pull up to this charger, I plug in my electric, my Electrify America, and it says my automatic payment wouldn't work. And so I had to call in, had to manage the process, reset it. And then when I'll tell you this, for their credit, the units did charge if I just plugged in. So if I showed up and just put my credit card in, pulled it out. It charged just fine. But I'm on a free account, because I bought the car and got two years of free charging. So it's actually the verification of my free charging. That was the issue with this.

00:25:58.009 --> 00:26:05.990
Yeah. So those worked that out. They should work that out for sure. Yeah.

00:26:01.880 --> 00:26:23.420
Yeah. Hopefully, the IRA legislation is going to, you know, augment our electric electrification ambitions. And we're going to talk about that or we're going to talk about the grid upgrades. I don't I haven't had time to review the docket, but

00:26:24.319 --> 00:26:26.600
I don't mention it.

00:26:24.319 --> 00:26:46.460
But we could mention the fact that Bloomberg came out with a sweet headline that said electric semis will pull as much electricity as a small town. So there's going to be megawatt recharges, and a mega A lot that's like, you know, a house is one to two kW at any time.

00:26:47.029 --> 00:26:50.299
That's 500 to 1000 houses. You know,

00:26:50.329 --> 00:27:00.920
that's really when you think about the, the Tesla charger network, John, great network, but it's not designed for semis, right? So,

00:27:01.068 --> 00:27:03.949
I mean, a whole different whole different sets of hardware

00:27:03.980 --> 00:27:24.710
you're gonna need, you're gonna need different, you're gonna have to put those chargers in the truckstops, where there's lots of space for truck parking, etc. Right? So there's room because these things are big, they've got trailers, my goodness, right?

00:27:18.650 --> 00:27:32.690
That the trailering of 40 What 40 5340 To 53 feet, right? Oh, my god, yeah, we got to build a lot of charging infrastructure,

00:27:33.048 --> 00:27:50.358
I saw a doable, I saw a an analysis from a camera which utility, but they said they're looking at truck, truck stop charging. I mean, they must see an absolute bounty, and revenue from charging trucks versus oil, people getting it.

00:27:50.808 --> 00:28:09.649
But one of the first things they're gonna look for truckstops is to put them in locations where they don't have to upgrade the substation, where there's a power line that's big enough, where where they don't have to build a new substation, where there's a power line, that's big enough, and it can take one to three megawatt demand from that existing spot.

00:28:09.679 --> 00:28:17.209
So there, so there's people doing hard work, hard analysis on where to place these units.

00:28:13.368 --> 00:29:42.108
And there's some ideas starting to bubble up from these utility groups who are trying to figure out how to optimise the first round, because later on, we're gonna run out of spaces, and then you're gonna have to start upgrading and building substations and, you know, building a substations couple million bucks, and, you know, connecting to the big grid, that's a lot of cash. So, it's, it'd be interesting to watch how they do it be interesting to watch a lot, but, but it's coming, it's coming hard right now. And, and, you know, the grid is gonna, you know, I did a site visit yesterday with a home builder on the Cape of Massachusetts. And we were talking about, you know, he has a small solar project on his building already. And he wanted to add a new one to for the rest of his roof. And he said something to me, at the end of the conversation, he goes, Listen, you know, this first project is great, it's chopped off our bill by 20%. But our electricity still keeps going up. And I said, Yeah, he goes, and you know, even if the cost of fuel falls from the solar or the wind or, or the price of gas falls, and you know, he, he seemed to be conscious of those things he goes, they're still going to have to upgrade the grid for all of these electric vehicles that we have to now include charges for in almost every house in Massachusetts. So it's becoming a code requirement in mass that houses have to be charged already, or maybe even have an Evie charger already.

00:29:42.499 --> 00:30:10.578
And the grid upgrades are in his head as to why he needs to do more solar today is because he specifically said the grid upgrades are going to keep driving the cost of the grid, because all these power lines are really old. And he's a construction guy, he knows kind of what's going on and grid upgrades are gonna be a big thing. So maybe that's the next next wave is to learn how to sell some copper.

00:30:11.450 --> 00:31:10.069
Yeah, this is so what what this sparks for me is that okay? If you're a solar installer today, let's just talk about residential. Tomorrow, you're a battery installer, and a heat pump installer and a panel upgrader, right, these, these three things are going to have to happen on the vast majority of our homes, millions and millions of homes. And that's why solar installers need to think more long term they, they've been in very one hit mode, right, we're going to get a customer one time. And that's it and then we're done. And that doesn't tend to make them very customer friendly, or really concerned even about the long term viability of their products or their projects. But truly, and this is why I'm excited about Hyundai home for example.

00:31:05.660 --> 00:32:36.529
I'm a huge fan of Hyundai you're living the Hyundai dream yourself. But they literally have launched a Hyundai home now because they see it you're gonna need an Eevee charger. You're gonna need a solar array and a battery and and potentially a panel upgrade right and they didn't they are not promoting a smart panel on their on this website. But of course the smart panel would be a very good thing. Because if you want to be on the island right then you can dynamically control So what loads at cetera? This is this is a golden opportunity, though for installers, right? Today, solar tomorrow, really, it's electrification of the home, and transportation, and everybody's going to need it. And it's just so it's those, those forward thinking installers that are really going to get in the game and benefit from this. And, and Barry talks about this on on the energy show, check out the energy show. That's one of my favourite, all time favourite podcasts. We're gonna have to be picky and choosey it's 1130. So what what is what is worth talking about? You know, the story about Germany pushing back against Iran incentives? I don't understand that story. So if you want to talk about that, I'm happy level.

00:32:37.399 --> 00:32:41.118
Yeah, high level.

00:32:37.399 --> 00:32:41.118
Europe, what's

00:32:41.120 --> 00:32:42.860
the story? Okay, story.

00:32:43.190 --> 00:33:30.890
So the story is, first of both Europe and Germany are, they feel that the IRA has put their industrial base at a challenge when it comes to clean energy, specifically, the incentives for EVs, which is pulling manufacturing to the US, the incentives for batteries, and maybe even solar panels, as well, hydrogen, all of these items are, of course, very important in IRA. And so one angle is, hey, the United States shouldn't do this, you guys should change your law. Now, I've seen multiple people say, Nope, not changing the Evie law, where you're, you guys are just gonna have to manufacture in the US this is a jobs programme.

00:33:26.089 --> 00:34:08.539
Canada even expressed a little bit of displeasure with it, but I didn't really hear much about their displeasure. What I did here, though, is that they simply pass their their own version of the investment tax credit. And it now looks like Europe might do similar actions in order to, you know, protect themselves from what they consider is, in essence, a just a big challenge for their manufacturing base making. And even the Australians have said the American hydrogen action might affect their ability to meet their goals with hydrogen.

00:34:03.259 --> 00:34:22.789
So it's, it's it's interesting to watch people, nation states who are trying their best to be good companies to build up green energy to manufacture. It's interesting to watch that occur.

00:34:18.440 --> 00:34:29.599
And their reaction while we're here celebrating it, because we're like, yes, we got great pricing, we're going to have a good deal. We're going to instal a lot of solar for a long time.

00:34:30.619 --> 00:36:55.400
I think other people what this thinks of to me, John is big companies influencing politics, it's like Europe is trying to be somewhat protectionist, now, about manufacturing, right? Because they're afraid manufacturing is gonna get pushed to the US Come on. It's like, it's a both end right? There. There's going to be so much demand for electrification of transportation, batteries, grid infrastructure, etc. And this is this is this is just, this is just friction for the energy transition. Right? And this is why capitalism is a, ultimately a very flawed model. It, it generates wealth. Yeah. But it also generates friction when you're trying to make a transition like this, right? It can gum up the system very, very quickly. Yeah, it's, it's a lot easier to slow stuff down and break stuff than it is to build it and get it deployed. And we're humans, for some reason, we don't really think a lot about this. You see the political crisis in the US, right? Like, it's a lot easier to cause a January 6 event than it is to have a functional democracy. And it's a lot easier to have crazytown happening on Twitter than it is to have functional dialogue. You take a piece of paper, and you set it on fire, and it'll just burn, right? But making that piece of paper super hard, burning it into ashes, super easy. That is the analogy. And we have to think about this with the energy transition, we have to become much more intentional and step back from well, we just we want to make money. Making money is easy actually in the greater scheme of things. Because sunlight is super abundant. And the earth is full of natural resources like soil, and gold and lithium, right? We have all have the resources we could possibly dream of. And yet we're stuck in this cave man, oh, I want it, and I want you to not have it. And it's, it's gonna be, it's gonna be the end of us.

00:36:57.260 --> 00:37:03.740
So it's complex.

00:36:57.260 --> 00:37:41.720
It's complex, I get it. And, you know, it'd be neat if we had an IRA, that was specifically for partners, people who we felt were fair, or maybe people in certain positive trade agreements. But I don't think that's a li illegal globally, and like the World Trade Organisation, but it would be cool if we could have like a Europe, US, IRA or a North America, one with Canada and Mexico, and everybody in Central America included as well. So, but but this is, you know, this is international politics and something to consider. So, but, you know, the very next story that I have on the document is

00:37:42.260 --> 00:37:43.820
q cells. Yeah.

00:37:45.740 --> 00:38:34.400
Well, just a quick Q Cell and a European consortium, are coming together to develop a perovskite plus silicon solar panel. And they're pushing on it, they're trying to sell the South Korean company that was purchased from a German company, Kusile was the original, it was bought by Han Wah. And now it's still, you know, still doing things in Europe and Europe is pushing, you know, our friend Meyer burger, is still pushing very hard to get the European Union to get a 20 to 40 gigawatt per year manufacturing base of solar modules. So it's there, everybody's pushing, everybody's pushing hard. And I, you know, I wish I could do this finger snap a, let's figure out a quick solution to make all these challenges tied together and work nicely. But but it's, it's me, it's more challenging than that.

00:38:35.600 --> 00:38:46.790
Yeah, I mean, I like this story, I like the next story about First Solar also.

00:38:39.260 --> 00:39:31.880
And that q cells is getting in this. I call it hybrid for lack of a better expression, or tandem, right, kind of tandem, tandem is the technical expression. So we can perovskite tandem cells, I think that's a good thing, then it's going to produce more efficient solar panels at the end of the day, right? Absolutely. And so you can get more kW Dc, on less space. And, cuz, you know, let's face it, a lot of buildings, you can't get 100%, you can't offset 100% of the load of many buildings, because they're space constrained. And it's okay if you can go to ground, but you can't always go to ground. And, and so we do need more efficient solar panels.

00:39:32.330 --> 00:40:08.540
And, of course, efficiency increasing to a greater than 30% means that your price per kilowatt hour is going to be 50% cheaper, because you're the same hardware that used to cost $1 to produce one watt, you're now going to have, I don't know 66 cents to produce that same wad of hardware, because you will output you know, 50% more from the same component. And that's, that's pretty significant. So I'm, I'm also a props guy family and the famous Ginny chase of Bloomberg.

00:40:09.200 --> 00:40:39.230
Nef, New Energy Finance. She's always like, it ain't real until it's a major manufacturer actually building them. You know, this is yet again another research thing so you got to take my fanboys and with a little bit of grain of salt here but uh, but it is Europe you know, this this is Europe working hard moving forward on stuff. And you know, we can talk about more solar panels because I got a great announcement the first time we have solar cells coming to the United States manufacturing for a decade.

00:40:39.470 --> 00:40:55.370
But yeah, story from Kelly pickerel at solar power world, right, America begin producing silicon solar cells for the first time in half a decade. Okay. What what was happening half a decade ago that went away? I don't know that answer but

00:40:57.050 --> 00:41:29.150
maybe sunny man, that's an EVA that they want to bring their name up, but I don't know who was making solar cells or maybe it was Solar World because or, or some power when they bought out Solar World and, and in Oregon. That's That's my guess, for the only person who has been making solar cells in the US that have gotten actually gone into a solar panel. But this is no, this is. It's a really nice product from what I've read about. I've never actually seen one of these panels in real life, but it's a heterojunction solar module or

00:41:29.150 --> 00:41:33.830
now I say now, wonderful tie in company, right?

00:41:34.190 --> 00:41:42.410
And L and L is a big Italian company. And and now they're they're vertically integrating though

00:41:45.080 --> 00:41:55.400
I always thought they were a project developer a year or two ago that they were a manufacturer as well. And it's like, that's a true, true vertical. Wait. They're not

00:41:55.400 --> 00:42:44.000
the only they're not the only developer that thinks about making solar panels, right. I was visiting a company in Rhode Island, a little solar company, and they're thinking about making solar panels because solar panels are so expensive. And they're so hard to get. And it would be a game changer. And so I get it, why a big developer, like an owl would want to go into making solar panels because they're consuming so many of them, they may as well. And now we have good incentives. So the the industrial legislation does work. The Ira legislation does work. We're going to get three gigawatt capacity. That's nothing to sneeze that we're doing. We're doing around 20 gigs, a year. Right?

00:42:44.540 --> 00:42:54.140
So not yet. We're aiming for 20. Now the United States is probably close to 10.

00:42:49.190 --> 00:43:01.670
Right now, maybe with all the with two thirds of that half of that being are still installations. Oh, installations. Yes. Pardon me?

00:43:01.670 --> 00:43:11.690
Sorry. Sorry. That's what we say manufacturing. Yeah. And then about 20. Yeah. And that number is gonna grow real fast. It's that number is going to start increasing, going forward really fast.

00:43:11.689 --> 00:43:15.589
It's triple. It's going to triple in the next five years, I think.

00:43:16.309 --> 00:44:17.659
Some projections like that. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. So speaking of pricing, you know, just for the first time, in a year and a half, solar, solar policy, silicon pricing has started to come down. started about two weeks ago, it's been getting projected. And now I'm starting to see the spot price coming out of Taiwan, the data showing that the price of silicone is officially coming down. And that's leading to the whole supply chain behind it also dropping this is maybe the second or third week in the link that I showed. And it's still, you know, relatively high compared to what it was at our, you know, the lows in the early 2000s, before COVID hit. But for the first time, you see a lot of red in this chart, instead of seeing green. And that's pretty cool. So come next year, we might see a nickel, get knocked off $1 And get knocked off.

00:44:18.169 --> 00:44:21.349
Because we are going to be manufacturing a huge volume.

00:44:21.379 --> 00:44:29.239
Yeah, we're gonna be manufacturing a huge volume of poly silicon. And, and that's just that's just pretty nice.

00:44:32.869 --> 00:44:45.139
And, you know, you can see it all across the board pricing starting to start starting to slide downward. And this is cool. Double digit percentages.

00:44:38.479 --> 00:44:46.789
We like that. So that top one is the one that matters the most of course,

00:44:48.740 --> 00:44:50.090
polysilicon price,

00:44:50.180 --> 00:44:55.010
yeah. Because that feeds into everything else, because it's the stock for everything else.

00:44:55.340 --> 00:45:01.580
Yeah. 2% change.

00:44:55.340 --> 00:45:01.580
Yeah. Okay, yep, that's good.

00:45:01.610 --> 00:45:13.610
And this is the second or third week, or that we've seen downward progression about a month ago, he said, nobody wants to pay more. It looks like there's downward pressure, everything was flat.

00:45:10.580 --> 00:45:44.870
And then boom, the very next week, pricing was down week after a pricing down week after pricing down so. So we should expect to see something like this going on maybe some bumps here and there. But we should expect poly silicon pricing and then module pricing to start coming down all the time, over the next maybe for a whole year, because and maybe even for two to three years. Because right now, we are seeing solar module manufacturing capacity and poly silicon manufacturing capacity.

00:45:40.520 --> 00:45:59.120
Just go up, up up. I mean, we spoke about it a couple of weeks ago. globally. By the end of next year, we expect 500 gigawatts of poly silicon manufacturing capacity to exist.

00:45:53.660 --> 00:46:42.170
And by the end of this year, we should be at 300 gigawatts of solar panel manufacturing capacity. And that's that's huge. I just saw a headline from Bloomberg saying that the US or the world may break 260 gigawatts installed almost 50% growth over last year. That is a gigantic number. And, and where as we're supplying the poly silicon for it and growing that we're seeing this price start to come down again. And so hopefully Paula silicone leads to a glut again, you know, the we always have these cycles where it's, you know, up and down, up and down. And, you know, maybe this is going to be the start of another downward cycle, which should be pretty cool.

00:46:44.780 --> 00:46:58.670
Yeah, you know, I just see it kind of like the weather, it ebbs and flows. And if it's going down now just wait, it'll go up by probably.

00:46:52.640 --> 00:47:16.190
But because I mean, in the greater scheme of things, we are asymptotics on that cost adoption curve, right? When it comes to this equipment, the big drop has already happened. We're going to see some, some small, slow decline over time now, but it's not going to be dramatic.

00:47:17.000 --> 00:47:24.860
Until there's some new radical breakthrough technology. And that could cause another quantum shift, so to speak.

00:47:24.919 --> 00:47:27.469
Oh, like, like perovskite silicone?

00:47:27.740 --> 00:47:31.010
Why did we wait so long to do the John Weaver story and PV magazine?

00:47:32.180 --> 00:47:34.460
And so many different things to talk about him? So many

00:47:34.520 --> 00:47:36.980
of you are? John, you're too pasty Muir?

00:47:39.290 --> 00:48:17.420
Yes, so this is today, Timothy, there's supposed to be an anti circumvention release ruling on the southwest Asian companies. While the Southwest Asian manufacturing facilities that are really we know this, Chinese manufacturing facilities and other countries, and today, we may get and we're supposed to get it. But we're supposed to get a ruling on whether or not these four nations and there are solar panels that are coming from China should get another tariff.

00:48:17.660 --> 00:48:54.230
And some people are saying it could be 30 to 50%, which would make the utility scale products, you know, gain on 50 cents a watt, which would pretty much knock it out of business in the United States. I mean, and, and, you know, this is my opinion on the fact that we shouldn't have a tariff, and I have a couple of bullet points so we can break down what it is. But it's, you know, it really comes down to first, we, we want Chinese technology now they're amongst the leaders in making quality solar panels globally.

00:48:55.189 --> 00:49:09.949
70% of our solar modules consumed in America come from Asia, just so our listeners understand this, there's a good reason for that, we did not invest in manufacturing in the US. And now we're playing catch up.

00:49:11.180 --> 00:49:42.590
So, so quality of product number two, we'll scroll down a tiny bit more, just to make sure I follow the article number two, the IRA is going to push the cost of manufacturing panels below a dime. And if the people of the United States are going to benefit from that cost being under a dime, then it's going to be required, this just the way business works, that there's somebody standing behind these manufacturers giving them pressure to give good pricing.

00:49:38.930 --> 00:51:11.360
Because if they don't have to do good pricing, there's just gonna be like, well, the competition's at 51. Let's go to 50. And if that's the case, then, you know, there goes the IRA savings. So I argue the Chinese need to be there, to put some pressure on the US manufacturers. That number three, we're about we say we need to get almost a terawatt of solar installed by 2035. We need everything globally, to support us. And for to cut off the largest resource globally of this product at this moment, is kind of it's going to spite ourselves. And so we should be conscious. And then the last one I put out there is that, you know, from a political standpoint, it might be a good thing to keep pressure on China in a dynamic manner. First, we should keep the Uighur protective law in place so that anything that comes from Western China, which is tainted by forced labour shouldn't be coming to the US. And second, maybe it's good to keep the mainland tariffs in place, not in order to help the US marketplace, but in order to force China to go global with their manufacturing, which helps those countries where it gets moved to and maybe even helps the world just by diversifying the supply chain because right now, China's zero COVID policy is kind of making a lot of business people nervous can't get product. So those are my four reasons why I think it's

00:51:11.360 --> 00:52:11.150
pretty good these workers gonna do though if they're not right if they're not meaning Chinese factories. Yeah, and, and it's not like China isn't. Let's be clear. China is investing in foreign infrastructure, especially in places like Africa. In so, you know, anyway, I yeah, I Good story. I am anti tariff basically, I think we know enough to know that tariffs are not the answer. And, but I have a question. For you, this says that IRA is going to drive the cost of American made solar panels below 10 cents. Yes.

00:52:12.770 --> 00:52:39.710
Okay. And if I'm, if I'm a solar panel manufacturer, taking advantage of IRA, building a factory, making cheap modules, there's going to be huge demand for those cheap modules get that? Why do I need competition from outside the US? Because I've got competition from inside the US.

00:52:41.000 --> 00:52:48.470
Do we? If we if that competition scales? Well, no, you're gonna have competition from inside the US?

00:52:48.860 --> 00:52:52.520
All at the same price point.

00:52:48.860 --> 00:52:59.660
Everybody, because we know listen, the truth is that everybody seems to collude in business, you know, there is, you know, the independents illegal, but

00:52:59.720 --> 00:53:05.960
it is illegal. But But But yeah, the the market will equilibrate.

00:53:06.919 --> 00:53:10.339
And the market will move to weird places where it's going to move, I don't

00:53:10.340 --> 00:53:16.160
know. But we'll have cheap. What's the cheap American solar panel today?

00:53:12.410 --> 00:53:23.600
Like, what's the what's the best American made panel? Lesson, the price of products, it's in the 50s?

00:53:24.050 --> 00:53:29.330
Well, it used to be in the 30s until the price of international panels went up.

00:53:26.810 --> 00:53:32.630
And they said, You know what, let's just increase our price to match the international product.

00:53:33.410 --> 00:53:48.890
That's what QCL did out of Georgia. Because I saw the price increase myself, we used to be able to get Q Cell modules in the 30s. Now you can't get till the 50s. And that's because they said you know what? The projects can sustain our increased price.

00:53:50.240 --> 00:53:51.590
And if

00:53:52.430 --> 00:54:14.390
until the industry really scales, AI, how that's going to move forward? That's a big question. Are we going to keep staring? Yeah, this is just funny one, are we going to? Are we going to grow our base? And are we going to give good prices? Or are we just going to try and maximise the revenue that we can make out of this.

00:54:10.610 --> 00:54:35.900
And if you're a cold hearted businessman, you're going to maximise the revenue. And that means you're going to look at what's in the marketplace. And you're going to push your price up to just below it. So you can sell your product, or you'll try and match it and be like, yeah, that's American made, or you will increase it because of the domestic product requirements.

00:54:30.200 --> 00:54:48.050
So, you know, I think, you know, if you're a capitalist, you believe you got to have a foot on your neck pushing you to make you do better. And I don't know, I think we need pressure to be better business people. I think we always need some pressure to do better work. So

00:54:48.080 --> 00:55:01.310
sure. competition, competition. Good. So we're gonna wrap up with a Oh, nm story. Somebody has been growing some weeds in their solar array.

00:54:56.510 --> 00:55:49.490
And, you know, I did see I was I was talking to yesterday, the image. I know, I know, I was talking to a developer or an installer down in Florida. And flat mounted solar is the thing down in Florida for a variety of reasons. Sun is higher in the sky. So flat works from a production perspective, but you want lower wind load, right? You want to put this stuff flat because the Hurricanes are common, and they will blow your array off the roof. If you don't mount it flat. I don't know where this project is. But that is the downside. If you don't go on your roof then and check it out. Periodically, you're gonna get a bunch of lovely leaves look like ferns almost. I don't know. It must be someplace tropical. A little lower. This is from Hawaii.

00:55:49.550 --> 00:55:56.990
I guarantee you it's Hawaii because the guys company is says Aloha solar. So that's that's my guess you gotta click on

00:55:57.470 --> 00:56:11.000
where high wind is a factor in Hawaii and they're, they're a warmer in a warmer latitude. This guy looks like Gary Vee. He's the Gary Vee of solar.

00:56:12.290 --> 00:56:16.760
Now, check that one out. Look at that module. That module kind of collapsed or something happened.

00:56:16.820 --> 00:56:18.380
That's ugly. Yeah,

00:56:18.439 --> 00:56:23.929
I've never seen that before. That's yucky. Yeah, that's, that's thanks me.

00:56:24.290 --> 00:56:25.340
That's really funky.

00:56:25.790 --> 00:56:30.920
Got to work hard man. Got to take care of our tickler take care of our gear. I

00:56:30.920 --> 00:56:32.450
wonder how old this array is?

00:56:35.990 --> 00:56:51.710
I don't know man, but that's a that's even a weird panel. What's the what's the edge of it as There's no aluminium frame. Yeah, no kind of modules. These are interesting stuff. So don't do that to your solar panel. Folks.

00:56:51.740 --> 00:56:59.690
Don't let your don't let your weeds take over. Because they will eat your soul solar installation. Apparently.

00:57:01.009 --> 00:57:09.379
Your weeds take over. I love it. All right, well, lovely episode. How can our listeners find you Mr.

00:57:09.379 --> 00:57:10.399
commercial solar guy,

00:57:11.360 --> 00:57:14.270
or solar guy.com.

00:57:11.360 --> 00:57:29.960
That's best place. We've got a contact us page. We're gonna be doing a little work on our website. A little more information up there. But that's really commercial Sawyer and LinkedIn Of course, John Fitzgerald Weaver. I am I am always sharing the stuff I write for PV mag. Templates. What about you? knock on your door?

00:57:29.990 --> 00:57:32.660
Hey, Tim, can people come to your new house in Illinois?

00:57:34.130 --> 00:57:49.610
Yeah, sure. Come come to Champaign, Illinois, visit me. I would love to. I'd love to meet more of my listeners. You can find me at Clean Power hour.com. And subscribe right there. Right there. A little pop up. Here.

00:57:49.610 --> 00:58:26.510
You see all of our content, had a great interview with Jeremy Kent. He is the Tim Montague of wind energy he's doing behind the metre, wind for industrial facilities. Great story. And He's based in the Midwest and focuses on the Midwest. And that's we have we have a lot of a lot of good wind. I know behind the metre wind you. You don't hear much about it. Most Most solar installers look at it and go doesn't pencil. But Jeremy has figured it out. He's cracked the code. He does wind PPAs. And these are like one to one to five megawatt projects.

00:58:26.540 --> 00:58:35.660
His minimum size is 1.5 megawatts. So he's doing these, you know, industrial size wind turbines, not, not ginormous ones. But anyway,

00:58:35.960 --> 00:58:53.690
for ground based turbines, it's like three to four megawatts is the larger sizes. So one to 1.5 to two and a half. That might be you know, that's still, you know, it's nothing like the offshore ones that are 15 Meg's, but for ground for ground based. He's close ish to

00:58:54.830 --> 00:59:41.750
a bunch of 2.5 megawatt turbines here in Illinois, the first wave that hit here in the early, early, mid 2000s 28 2008, to 2012. So anyway, go to clean power hour.com, please, you know, subscribe, you can, you can click on Apple podcast or Spotify, you can listen on your favourite player, you can give us a rating and review most importantly, and you can learn about me, I did an interview with James monk, Walter on his podcast, the car botnet podcast, and I tell my story and how I got into solar. And it started when I was 10. It just took me 40 years to really smell the coffee and get into PV. And I, I say in the intro, why I waited?

00:59:41.990 --> 00:59:52.700
I don't know It's anybody's guess. Sometimes we're slow on the uptake. But I'm here now.

00:59:46.250 --> 01:00:05.600
That's what matters. So anyway, check it out. You can click on that YouTube icon right there, okay at the top. And that's how you find our channel. And these live shows every Thursday at noon, Eastern 11, Central 10.

01:00:05.660 --> 01:00:14.090
Mountain, nine Pacific. Well, thank you, John. I hope you have a great rest of your week and we will see you next week.

01:00:14.660 --> 01:00:16.820
Absolutely. Enjoy yourself as well Tim.

01:00:17.810 --> 01:00:20.870
I'm Tim Montague.

01:00:17.810 --> 01:00:21.170
Let's go solar and storage. Take care.