Feb. 24, 2026
Batteries Now #1 Morning Power Source in California
For the first time, batteries and solar powered California around the clock, with batteries running as the number one morning electricity source at nearly 6,000 megawatts. Tim Montague and John Weaver break down this milestone and a packed week of clean energy news, from a Supreme Court ruling striking down global tariffs to a Republican push to reinstate the 30% solar ITC.
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS
- California achieved 24/7 solar and battery power for the first time. Batteries discharged through the night and morning, charged on near-free midday solar, then discharged again in the evening. (PV Magazine)
- Republican House member Brian Fitzpatrick voted against the "One Big Bill" over the removal of solar and wind tax credits and now pushes to reinstate the ITC. (E&E News)
- The Supreme Court ruled Trump's global tariffs illegal. John clarifies this removes the 10-20% blanket tariffs on goods like copper, steel, and aluminum. Solar module tariffs, battery tariffs from China (40-60%), and Southeast Asian tariffs remain in place.
- Indonesia's solar imports surged from 6 megawatts to 2.5 gigawatts of modules in under two years. Petitioners in the AD/CVD investigation now cite "critical circumstances." Expect new tariff action targeting Indonesian modules. (Solar Power World)
- Hithium completed the world's first open-door fire safety test on a 6.25 MWh battery energy storage system. Even with doors open and safety systems disabled, adjacent battery units were undamaged. (ESS News)
- Tim reports the number of battery companies at Intersolar roughly doubled year over year, now outnumbering solar module companies.
With the ITC phase-out approaching, electricity prices climbing, and battery deployments accelerating, the stories covered here directly affect procurement decisions, financial modeling, and market strategy in 2026.
Connect with Tim
Clean Power Hour
Clean Power Hour on YouTube
Tim on Twitter
Tim on LinkedIn
Email tim@cleanpowerhour.com
Review Clean Power Hour on Apple Podcasts
The Clean Power Hour is produced by the Clean Power Consulting Group and created by Tim Montague. Contact us by email: CleanPowerHour@gmail.com
Corporate sponsors who share our mission to speed the energy transition are invited to check out https://www.cleanpowerhour.com/support/
The Clean Power Hour is brought to you by CPS America, maker of North America’s number one 3-phase string inverter, with over 6GW shipped in the US. With a focus on commercial and utility-scale solar and energy storage, the company partners with customers to provide unparalleled performance and service. The CPS America product lineup includes 3-phase string inverters from 25kW to 275kW, exceptional data communication and controls, and energy storage solutions designed for seamless integration with CPS America systems. Learn more at www.chintpowersystems.com
The Clean Power Hour is produced by the Clean Power Consulting Group and created by Tim Montague. Please subscribe on your favorite audio platform and on Youtube: bit.ly/cph-sub | www.CleanPowerHour.com | contact us by email: CleanPowerHour@gmail.com | Speeding the energy transition!
WEBVTT
00:00:53.420 --> 00:01:03.679
Welcome to the Clean Power Hour live bringing you the latest and greatest clean energy news every other week with none other than the commercial solar guy, John Weaver, welcome to the show, John,
00:01:04.159 --> 00:01:06.200
how you doing life?
00:01:07.340 --> 00:01:11.180
Life is great.
00:01:07.340 --> 00:01:20.560
We're moving into a post ITC world in the solar industry, there's blood in the water, but there's lots of opportunity. So listen up solar professionals.
00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:35.640
Let's get better at doing what we do right? Let's bring down the cost of solar. Let's improve the quality and the long term performance of our projects. Lot of talk about project performance going on in our industry. Because guess what?
00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:40.680
John, solar is underperforming.
00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:44.280
There's a bit of a race to the bottom in the solar industry.
00:01:40.680 --> 00:01:48.480
Right? People end up buying cheap equipment or cheap contractors. And guess what?
00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:50.159
That doesn't turn out so well.
00:01:52.140 --> 00:02:08.000
Yeah, performance matters. A lot of a lot of our customers, we have performance guarantees for them. In some of our contracts, our commissioning tests are pretty significant. We don't use a dino Watts unit.
00:02:04.700 --> 00:02:28.300
That would be cool if we did, but, you know, we use a little PV cyst coupled with also energy. We've never done insurance level coverage guarantees, though, that one group trying to remember their name right now, they have not G Cube for insurance, but a different one I don't know, no not solar insurer, someone else.
00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:31.500
He started off with a lot of cool solar insurance stuff.
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:34.259
They, they taught me about it.
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:45.659
His name will come to me, Matsui, I think ran the show there, but, but, yeah, insurance is out there for coverage. And there's, there's interesting stuff. So I, I do, I do think having good quality matters.
00:02:45.659 --> 00:03:09.080
It's funny, though, one of the stories that I wanted to chat about is about a politician who wants to bring back the ITC a Republican, and so I don't think we're in a post ITC world. I actually disagree with that. I think we're in a middle phase. I mean, technically the ITC is still here, so definitely our reality today is not post ITC, but very soon could become,
00:03:10.819 --> 00:04:11.599
yeah, I'll put this on screen. I just did, you know, I just dropped an interview with Costa Nicolaou from our from Ari, Boston, and we, we talked about this, the ITC going away, and whether or not it's going to come back, and it's fine to hold out hope that it's going to come back. If it comes back, that's only a good thing, and it is an accelerant, right? And it's interesting that we have a Republican who's fighting for bringing the ITC back. We're not in the post ITC world, but for I like to say, for all intents and purposes, we are, because it's only a year and a half, a little more than those, let's say two years right, two years away. And of course, if you're safe harboring, and then you've got a you've got a longer runway, but, but we all have to be prepared for it to go away. But what's the story with this Republican in is it Pennsylvania?
00:04:12.379 --> 00:05:01.460
Uh, yes, Brian Fitzpatrick. He's a House House member, and he voted against the one big bill. Apparently, he did not like the removal of solar and wind tax credits, and he wants it back. And he actually lines up with things I was hearing from other people like, you know, I remember reading before, when the OBB was being talked from folks who are saying, listen, right now we're talking about the tax credit going away, but we think it might become Permanent in 2028 like that was the exact opposite of the things I was hearing. You know, we're seeing the tax credit go away, but at the exact same moment, people are saying, Nope, it might become permanent.
00:05:01.639 --> 00:05:43.320
And that really surprised me to hear that it's like, in the midst of my depression, it's like, oh my god, what are we going to do to get moving? We're hearing the opposite a couple years down the road. Now, that's a nice little thing to satiate your soul and make you not fight for the thing that's in front of you, but now we're starting to see it. I mean, we got a Republican who's going to push for it, and I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, the original tax credit came from George Bush, and then the tax credit was Republicans who controlled the House and the Senate in 2015 extended the tax credit. That's when we had our massive 2016 year, because everybody thought the tax credit was going to end.
00:05:39.120 --> 00:06:06.019
So do I think tax credits come back? I do. I believe so. I did a little poll. Did you see my poll that I did on LinkedIn? By any chance? How did that play out? Well. We should share the results with everybody and show it. So mind that put it on screen. I'm gonna I'm coming to it right now. Here it is, here's, here's the here's the post. So yeah, so we did a poll.
00:06:01.820 --> 00:06:13.120
I did it on LinkedIn. Got a lot of, a lot of lot of thoughts there. And here it is, it just found it. Let's zoom in on this thing and see what's going on.
00:06:13.120 --> 00:07:22.240
So let's do a share. Boom, share my screen, pick my LinkedIn, and let's zoom in real tight, alright, so we got got my poll here. Oops, alright, so I hope is that big enough for you guys to read it? Tim, people on the screen. All right, great. So do you think the US 30% federal tax credit will be reinstated, and we got 135 votes, so that's a decent number. I don't know if that's scientifically appropriate, but because I'm not a scientist, but if you look at it, 25% just said yes, another 25 said yes, but different, 39% said no, and 11% they just wanted to see the results. So we sort of had a, you know, if we think out of this chunk here, we got a 50% versus 39 so that's not overwhelming or anything, but that thinks that some that shows that some people think, hey, maybe. And, you know, there's some opinions on it
00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:27.700
and and the you think the predominant Yes, but different is yes, but permanent.
00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:33.779
No, no, no, no, just different. No, just different. Who knows is that?
00:07:31.200 --> 00:07:43.799
That's what everybody I put different just because, because I thought different might fit, but I have no idea. Yeah, yeah, I didn't. Man permit might be
00:07:43.980 --> 00:09:22.720
it cool, but I'll just say I've been having a lot of conversations about this at at inner solar the last couple of days with manufacturers, okay? And these are people that benefit from the ITC, okay, it affects the whole, the whole spectrum of solar companies, whether you're a manufacturer or an installer or developer or asset owner, but I'm not hearing a resounding confidence in it's coming back. And I just think it's healthy for us to behave as if it's not and it's okay to lobby for it and talk to your elected officials and say it is a good thing, it is a good thing, okay, but let's not bank on it. We have to. We have to, in my opinion, be more focused on bringing down the cost of solar, reducing the soft costs, making the permitting and interconnection faster and easier and improving our quality long term performance is a big issue. The other signal I'm getting is that there's now a very significant repowering industry. John I was talking with my friend Eric at omco about a big repowering job where they're going to tear off series four first solar modules and replace them with series seven.
00:09:19.539 --> 00:09:33.299
Those series four modules that were installed in 2013 are only 120 watts. John, it's it's crazy how how technology has changed in just 13 years.
00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:39.059
That's a that's cool. I don't know money.
00:09:39.059 --> 00:09:41.819
Seven modules are like 750 watts.
00:09:41.939 --> 00:09:47.819
They're also really big too. They get really big the next round. So, yeah, yeah. And their efficiency is way up as well.
00:09:48.240 --> 00:09:51.720
Yeah, yeah. So, yeah.
00:09:51.720 --> 00:10:44.399
So I agree we shouldn't. I mean, technically, it's going away, you know, it's going away in a year, in two years, roughly. And for my business, it's still very important, because our projects, you know, we're not going to really participate in projects that go that are going to, that need to Safe Harbor by this summer. We may participate in one or two at most, but that's not going to be our bread and butter. Our bread and butter is going to be projects that will finish at the end of this year, projects that will be finished at the end of next year. And then after that, we have to start figuring out what's coming next. And I would say, you know, the region that we're in, New England, we have very high energy pricing. It counters by having high labor costs, because unions are very strong with electricians, and they have a lot of control up here, which is good I like paying but you know, that's that's what our market is so, so who knows what's going to happen? This is a bipartisan supported piece of legislation.
00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:50.699
Everybody likes getting rid of tax credits, because rich people get to use tax credits, and residential people like tax.
00:10:50.779 --> 00:11:22.179
Credits and and I personally believe it's an important tax credit to have, because it's really, to be honest, it's not really a tax credit. It's not really an incentive, in my opinion, my opinion, this is really just a carbon tax in another form that's directly applied, that doesn't allow politicians to extract the tax and stick it somewhere. This is a direct application of a carbon tax that's politically palatable, so, but who knows? We got to get to work. We got to build doesn't matter.
00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:35.399
Let's talk about batteries. You found a story before that. You wrote a story, I wrote a story. You wrote a story in PV magazine, when the sun sets, batteries rise 24/7 solar in California. I love this story.
00:11:35.819 --> 00:12:07.819
I want to jump in front of it. Though it's the story of the week. I need to cover it. But we had something very big happened. You actually knocked it off the list. Tim, I knocked Supreme Court. The Supreme Court made a big, big ruling in the last couple of hours. I don't know if you noticed that the Supreme Court overruled. Said it was illegal Trump's global tariffs. And I want to just clear this up and communicate it to people in a, in a, in a in a manner that it grabs them properly. So, you know, we'll go back to this story next, because this is actually my favorite story of a while
00:12:07.819 --> 00:12:11.740
that I've gotten written. I don't see it on the dock, though, I deleted it.
00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:11.740
Yeah, it
00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:13.659
was at the top.
00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:21.159
Don't worry, it's where you put the link for the show. It was right there. But it's all right, we don't even need a story. We can find one if you want.
00:12:21.339 --> 00:12:25.480
Cnn.com, I have it whatever.
00:12:21.339 --> 00:12:26.259
Just type in CNN, Trump's tariffs.
00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:34.019
So the supreme court is saying that was not legal putting tariffs on solar equipment.
00:12:34.319 --> 00:12:50.579
No, no, that's why I have to talk about it. We have to be a little more refined in the conversation. So when he came into power, he added a 10 to 50% 100% tariff against everybody, just like the whole world. It didn't matter who you were, didn't matter what you look like. Tariff, you're alive.
00:12:50.579 --> 00:13:37.799
Tariff, you're from somewhere else, tariff, if I don't like you, tariff. And that was it. If you don't be nice to me, more tariff. And that's the way it works. And so the global tariff, which right now, I think, is at 10% against everybody, and it's just everything, everything coming into the country, unless you bribe them, somehow, you got a tariff. And some of the tariffs are pretty big, 45% 50% that tariff, which is 10 to 20% 10 to 40% that tariff is gone. I don't know how it's going to work out, but it's illegal, so I think they have to stop collecting it today. But all the other tariffs that hate our industry, you know, the the section 232, which is coming, the, you know, there's, there's, there's various tariffs, you know, all these AC, dv, things.
00:13:34.139 --> 00:13:46.500
It's which I can never say the name, right? ACD, slash, VD, whatever it is, those tariffs are still there. The battery tariffs are still there. The China tariffs are still there.
00:13:43.139 --> 00:13:49.259
So the tariffs against the Southeast Asian countries, those are still there on our modules.
00:13:49.379 --> 00:13:52.038
So I just, why are you so excited about this?
00:13:52.039 --> 00:14:28.179
It's just, it's important thing to bring up. We just knocked off 10 20% off of like, say, copper, off, just random stuff, steel, aluminum, extra tariffs and but we got to talk out, because it's important to know what it doesn't mean for us. We still have import tariffs on modules that double the price of our modules. We still have a 40 to 60% tariff on battery imports from China. So so some are gone. Most of them are still here for our industry. So it's news. It's news that we shouldn't sell. We should celebrate a tiny bit, but not as solar people. We should be like, Alright, cool, and get back to work because
00:14:28.299 --> 00:14:37.980
but so is this? Is this potentially one domino of many that is could cascade into real, significant change in our industry.
00:14:38.519 --> 00:14:40.439
No, I don't think so.
00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:42.839
Okay, this is,
00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:50.100
yeah, I would love to, I'd love to say, tell you that Tim, I you know me. I'm a happy guy. So no,
00:14:50.159 --> 00:14:52.699
sorry, well, let's, let's get happy on battery.
00:14:52.879 --> 00:14:55.158
Yeah, much better, much better. I like this story.
00:14:55.158 --> 00:14:59.298
Let's do it. You gotta scroll down. Show us the graph.
00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:14.679
And I will say, John, there's a clear signal at inner solar. The show was smaller by about a third this year, but the number of battery companies was probably doubled, and there are more battery there's more battery companies now than there are solar module companies at this show
00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:18.579
that makes sense.
00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:33.720
That makes sense because, because there's going to be a billion batteries, it's going to be so hard to know which battery to pick. Man, everybody's going to package it their own special way. It's harder. I think batteries are easier to assemble as a package than a solar panel will be. I don't know that because I'm not a manufacturer.
00:15:33.720 --> 00:16:05.600
I Don't Know Jack. But just a thought, all right, here's, here's the chart of the day, man, we got to zoom in on this thing. Gotta zoom in to the point where you can see all that purple, that purple stuff on the bottom. Yeah. So this story is really about that purple, and I know it gets really thin there two, three on the left. But what this is about is that, for the first time, to the best of my knowledge, batteries and solar ran 24/7 in California. So if you actually go to the prior day, you can on this because this is an image that I grabbed.
00:16:05.779 --> 00:16:08.480
But if you go to the prior day, batteries started running in the
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:49.199
30pm just like you can see on this chart, around 415, to 16 hour. Around the 16 hour, which is four batteries, started running, then they ran through the evening, just like on this chart, but then you can see at zero, midnight on the left of this chart, let's just scroll to the left a tiny bit. You can see the battery started running at midnight, and for the whole morning they kept running. I know it looks really thin, but I double checked it's a positive, net positive battery output all the way through the morning until about 730 I think it was 735 or 740 when the sun started getting big. And batteries cumulatively, and I'm going to say that word loudly, cumulatively, started charging.
00:16:49.199 --> 00:17:16.480
And then they charged all day long, right up till the evening, and then they hit their stride in the evening, and then they ran to like 1230 so this here's, here's the line, here's the sales pitch line. Tim for the whole day California was solar powered 24 hours, because those batteries, they charge in that big old purple chunk that's in the middle, because that electricity is dang near free.
00:17:12.519 --> 00:18:13.599
You know, that's, that's like one cent per kilowatt hour electricity. That's, that's cheap stuff that they're getting. It would have been curtailed. That electricity would not have existed if it weren't for the batteries. And so they charge on the sun all day, and then they ran overnight. So California, sunny California. Man, was 24 hours solar power. Now it's a tiny, little bit of tiny sliver. You know, the haters are gonna hate, but I don't care. And ran, dude, the batteries ran. And here's a little nuance that is a large collection of hundreds of batteries. So they're like, you know, there is no one battery that ran 24/7, yes, yes. Well, this is only utility scale. This doesn't include distributed, which is in the 10s and hundreds of 1000s Tim and Cali, but, but, yeah, so there's where I'm saying that one battery. So it's not one battery that ran, it's the fleet of batteries that ran.
00:18:10.519 --> 00:18:13.599
And that's what's necessary.
00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:17.680
That's what Kelly wanted anyway.
00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:49.680
And so that's just cool, man, California's running on sunlight. That's the story of the week. That's the story of the year, dude. And here's Oh, and here's a new cool one. So this happened, like, a day or three later. So what this is showing if is that batteries at 5997, for the first time, to the best of my knowledge, were the number one morning electricity source. Tim, we all know about the evening, evening peak.
00:18:45.720 --> 00:18:53.299
Electricity gets more expensive because we don't have that sun.
00:18:49.920 --> 00:20:01.639
Everybody's home. It's blasting the AC. But what's happening in the E in the mornings? Tim, electricity is more expensive in the morning now because people are waking up. They're turning on their toasters, they're taking hot showers, they're turning on the lights, they're moving. And before the sun starts to hit, the price goes up, and so for the first time price signals, and that's the key. Price signals have motivated the battery people to output in the morning and the evening. And for the first time, to the best of my knowledge, batteries were the number one morning source. So now we have number one in the morning, number one in the evening, and then solar just blasting it. So we're pretty soon going to have a day where batteries are going to be the number one source at like 6am and then it's going to go to the number one source of solar at like eight, and then solar is going to be number one until five, and then batteries are going to be number one to like 10. We're gonna have like a 15 hours of nothing but sun and batteries dominating the California grid. It's coming shortly. It's coming shortly. So pretty cool stuff. I'm excited about it.
00:20:03.500 --> 00:20:10.339
It's a good story.
00:20:03.500 --> 00:20:16.660
I took a webinar from om am om analytics and q cells last week.
00:20:10.339 --> 00:21:21.700
And if you haven't seen this webinar, check it out. You can just Google it. The recording is out there on the OM analytics. I think om has published it, but they break down the CNI or DG battery market and highlight different markets and Illinois is one of the largest DG battery markets now, thanks to our new surge legislation the VPP, I ran into a company. I didn't get to talk with them, but I learned about it called lunar, just like lunar, the moon, right? Lunar ESS. Check it out. Are entering the Illinois market. This is the batteries as a service marker market like base. Power Base is installing a 40 kilowatt hour battery that looks like a AC unit outside the home, and then it provides grid services, VPP and resiliency, if the you know if and when you need that. So the battery only thing is really going to be a hot, hot market.
00:21:22.299 --> 00:21:40.980
Now for us, right in the US, we're going to see a lot of battery only, battery, solar and storage is great, right? That's the PB and J. I love it. But we're also going to see battery alone at all scales, right?
00:21:35.759 --> 00:21:42.059
Individual buildings up to utility scale.
00:21:43.798 --> 00:21:45.719
Totally agree with that. Totally agree with that.
00:21:45.719 --> 00:22:03.259
Yeah, batteries. You know, you can deploy batteries so quickly and easily. Well, I don't know about easily, but so quickly in a space versus, say, you know, big solar plant, and with wireless tools, with VPPs, you know, you can move the energy where you need it, and then that local battery does great work.
00:22:03.259 --> 00:22:13.838
You know, this is NREL. NREL is what their name is. They're not something of the Rockies whatever. NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
00:22:10.459 --> 00:22:34.318
They're awesome. My favorite people in the world, NREL, did a great report looking at where battery cost makes sense relative to demand charges in the US. And back when that report came out, five, five ish years ago, plus maybe, I think they were saying like 15 to $20 demand charges were needed, and that was like half the country.
00:22:34.739 --> 00:22:39.778
But then battery prices dropped by 50% 75% since that report.
00:22:40.138 --> 00:22:46.558
So, you know, I really want to get good at batteries. I'm actually talking with a local startup here at Harvard kids.
00:22:46.739 --> 00:23:04.278
They're starting a little company, and they're trying to do batteries direct at the location, and I think it's a great idea, and I want to pat him on the back and tell him to work hard, because I believe in that idea. So, so, so maybe we can interview some Harvard kids.
00:22:59.178 --> 00:23:05.479
So, so, yeah. Anyway, batteries are great, dude, loving it.
00:23:05.720 --> 00:23:08.779
Do you really want to talk about rising electricity prices?
00:23:09.259 --> 00:23:24.279
Well, I think we should bring it up at least, just for a moment to make sure that our customers, you know, our commercial developers, our people that are we need to be refocused on. You know, you're talking about the ITC going away. Well, guess what?
00:23:21.759 --> 00:23:35.819
Electricity price is going up 7% this year, 7% next year, and then slowing down a little bit the year after, is about equal the 10% of an ITC Tim, you know, kidding.
00:23:35.819 --> 00:23:49.319
I love, I love talking about this because I've coined a new expression, rising electricity prices. Sorry, rising electricity prices is the only guarantee, and they're significant. What did this story say?
00:23:49.318 --> 00:23:55.699
40% demand? Bro, yeah, 40% dude, wow.
00:23:55.878 --> 00:24:07.398
So there's one guarantee and, well, there's two guarantees are going to go up, and the cost of solar batteries is coming down. And together, that's anti gravity for our industry, bro.
00:24:09.858 --> 00:24:13.239
We have that now.
00:24:09.858 --> 00:24:47.939
We do have some cost upward pressures within our industry, labor costs, materials like silver and copper, but more broadly, energy is outpacing that stuff. So so yeah, so I just you know, as commercial developers, I want to make sure that we, as retail, as sales people, keep in our head clearly, price of electricity is complex. It's not even across the nation, though. So what's there are reports out there that break down the electricity price increases on a state by state, regional level. So if you're a local sales guy, you need to, like, know your region well, because, I mean, look at this Illinois. Tim, geez. Look at Ohio. Look at Virginia,
00:24:48.118 --> 00:25:03.078
16% year over year in Illinois, 12% in Ohio, 13% in Virginia, only 4% in Texas, kudos to Texas, and 1.2% in California. Kudos to California.
00:24:58.219 --> 00:25:10.759
I do there may be a signal there. You know, Texas and California have the most solar and battery, so maybe that's working. I don't know
00:25:11.298 --> 00:26:11.297
that signal, dude, that's a signal. I mean, Illinois electricity shouldn't be going up. You guys have like, 50% nuclear, and that stuff's fixed, isn't it?
00:26:11.356 --> 00:26:35.969
40% nuclear? Yeah, yeah. Well, we are getting data centers. So there is load growth in Illinois, and that's, that's probably the root cause. But and electrification, I mean, the the charging infrastructure is growing, even though there's a dip in in EV sales in the United States, right? Or it's flat.
00:26:36.028 --> 00:26:43.429
It's not really growing that quickly anymore. It'll come back the first principles of elect.
00:26:40.588 --> 00:26:54.048
Electrification of transportation and electrification of HVAC, just rule the day, right? Those are better, more efficient technologies, fewer moving parts, they're going to win.
00:26:56.390 --> 00:26:59.630
Got the long game.
00:26:56.390 --> 00:27:07.690
Tim, so anyway, as as professionals pay attention to this electricity price. You know, in my financial models, I'm really conservative with the price,
00:27:07.749 --> 00:27:10.808
with the what is the escalator you use in your model?
00:27:11.230 --> 00:27:25.110
I use two and a half or three. And I'm in New England, I use two and a half or three. I don't want to go above three, because long term is 2.8 2.5 in the US, you know, it's, it's slower than inflation.
00:27:22.150 --> 00:27:29.130
Historically, we're just in a funny period. We should probably be doing it for. But who knows.
00:27:29.130 --> 00:27:37.650
I mean, in Rhode Island, the price of electricity went down this winter versus prior winter.
00:27:32.490 --> 00:27:55.250
So it's, yeah, because Rhode Island had very expensive gas due to other things going on around the world. So it's, I got, we got to be every every person is local. Tim, we live in a state level industry. Illinois is very different from California. You just saw without electricity rate. So we, we got to be local professionals.
00:27:55.308 --> 00:28:22.828
Well, I see a 4% escalator is quite common. I get, I have the privilege of working with a variety of EPCs, and so I get to see what other installers are doing, and I see a lot of 4% and I and I stand by that. I have no issue with that, but I also think 3% is very reasonable and fair. I mean, that's one of, one of the things about running a solar cash flow.
00:28:22.828 --> 00:28:29.848
John, is there some subtle ways that you can tweak the numbers to make things look better than they may actually be in reality?
00:28:30.269 --> 00:28:34.949
Yeah. But do you want to talk about aliens?
00:28:34.950 --> 00:28:38.549
Yes, absolutely.
00:28:34.950 --> 00:28:40.289
Come on. This is a fully energy story, sort of kind of
00:28:41.190 --> 00:28:46.430
looking for advanced aliens, search for exoplanets with large coal deposits.
00:28:46.730 --> 00:28:53.390
Yeah, come on. I just, I just thought this was a fun one. So just the story.
00:28:49.490 --> 00:29:40.529
Well, just 10 seconds, just to entertain ourselves, some researchers, they this is just a hypothesis. They're coming up with ideas. They say, you know, if we want to find societies in space that are like ours, that we're able to do advanced things. One thing we should consider is coal, and the reason is that coal led to our ability to create hardened metals. And these hardened metals were the pathway to us doing, you know, modern civilization, stuff, steel, baby hard steel, and, yeah, communication towers and rocket ships and satellites and awesome stuff. Yeah, so coal was the first step. Coal was that stepping plant, at least these people, at least
00:29:40.529 --> 00:30:55.130
with us, well. And to have and to have coal, you have to have lots of life, oceans and and. So, yeah, you have to have lots of life in order to have an advanced civilization. So, yeah, this is, this is interesting. The other, the other, the other. Curious space story that I heard the other day is that there are some geeks at NASA that are modeling a future where the moon is gone because we've mined the moon and converted it into satellites and space based data centers. It's a thing. Yeah, the lunar Moon, the whole moon, so there's no more lunar eclipses. Now, when you google this, right? You do solar eclipses. The conversation, the conversation about space based, everything you know AI data centers is definitely getting news right there. Yeah, Elon is talking about it. Google's Google wrote a report on this.
00:30:49.670 --> 00:31:25.350
And you get a lot more radiation in space than you do here on Earth. So I do think, I do think that we will, we will build space based data centers. It's just question of how soon. Now, finding aliens on a distant planet. I don't expect to see that in my lifetime, but I'm okay with the concept. It's very likely that they're out there, right? They're just they, most of them don't get off planet.
00:31:26.430 --> 00:31:30.630
And you see that with humanity, we're busy shooting ourselves in the foot. John,
00:31:33.749 --> 00:31:45.500
it's very hard to mess up, and it takes a lot of work to mess up, so we're, you know, we got to be focused on that. Tim, you mean to not mess up. No to mess up. We're shooting ourselves in the foot.
00:31:42.861 --> 00:31:47.300
Takes a lot of focus to be able to shoot yourselves in the foot as much as we are,
00:31:49.581 --> 00:31:51.141
we're doing a damn good job.
00:31:51.800 --> 00:32:00.381
All right, all right. So that's it. So if you're, if you're a space alien searcher, start looking for coal. That's that's the pitch.
00:31:57.441 --> 00:32:00.381
That's the sales pitch.
00:32:00.862 --> 00:32:14.890
All right. Now there's a story about hitham says world's first open door, first test of its 6.25 megawatt hour best was completed. Tell me about John. I've seen the name, but I'm not familiar. Where are they out of
00:32:15.308 --> 00:32:30.209
so they are Chinese battery manufacturer. They're one of the leading edge manufacturers, one of the biggest they they're, I see them just deploying all around the world. So, you know, lithium hit them. That's their, their pitch
00:32:30.450 --> 00:32:32.730
play on lithium, right? Yep.
00:32:33.210 --> 00:32:56.029
And what was interesting about this test, and i That's why I grabbed it said, and I think it's important for sales guys, commercial sales people to understand this, that this battery was able to open the doors, so that means very highly oxygenated fire and then shut off all safety features.
00:32:57.110 --> 00:33:32.130
And with that occurring, even right next to another battery, the unit was the other batteries weren't damaged, right? So this is just an extreme test of let's do, let's do a bunch of stuff that hopefully shouldn't happen, like this. The safety systems shouldn't shut down, the doors shouldn't be open. These are two things which we shouldn't be doing, but we're doing it just to see what happens, which I love, you know, just setting stuff on fire, that's so cool.
00:33:27.509 --> 00:33:32.610
But that's what this test is, and it's
00:33:32.610 --> 00:33:36.690
actually the test.
00:33:32.610 --> 00:33:40.710
This is the test to see that the fire or the thermal event won't spread from container to container, right,
00:33:41.489 --> 00:33:46.068
even under the worst circumstances. Yes, that's fundamentally what we're looking at. Good, good summary.
00:33:46.069 --> 00:33:50.269
Tim, yes, yeah.
00:33:46.069 --> 00:33:50.269
Um, you all 9540 a
00:33:52.548 --> 00:34:11.228
and NFPA national fire. So what's cool about this one also is that, look at that cell. You know, this is the first time. This is a really neat cell. We're about to learn more about it. But if you scroll up to the top the solar cell that's in that one, it's 1175, notice 11, 1175, amp hours.
00:34:11.528 --> 00:34:37.528
That's the biggest battery cell that's out there. And they say that this battery cell is aiming for long duration energy storage. This is like a battery cell that's like this big. It's like, you know, it's like a single like your car battery, except one cell. And so I'm really interested about this cell that, you know, it's not the focus of the story. The focus of the story is the fire.
00:34:30.688 --> 00:34:57.889
But that 1170 Yeah, the 1175 amp hour cell, that's just a real interesting cell. It's being deployed in Saudi Arabia right now as part of a long duration battery. And I think we're talking like an eight to 12 hour lithium battery. And so it's just interesting that cell. So that's, you know, different topic, not related to this, but you know, it's what we set on fire, which is cool.
00:35:00.588 --> 00:35:05.048
So if this is this large format, 1175, amp hour.
00:35:05.169 --> 00:35:13.809
What is the what is the standard cell amp hour for? Yeah, most CNI batteries today, or utility batteries?
00:35:14.350 --> 00:35:17.110
Well, yeah. So those are actually different. So we actually had a story.
00:35:17.110 --> 00:35:19.690
Is it like in the three hundreds or Yeah? Yeah.
00:35:19.690 --> 00:36:24.990
So right now, the standard for utility scale is around three. But this is the year of the big sell. We said that. We covered that story a few weeks back, maybe a month back, and the big sell is showing a lot of manufacturers moving from a 300 ish to like a 567, 100, with this one being like the biggest sell that's out there. So right now, if you were to purchase a thing at this immediate moment that was available, it might still be a 300 but it's transitioning to 600 for the big projects and and extreme ones like this one. This one's pushing the edges at 1175 now a residential battery is probably in the 100 amp hour. We actually covered a story a couple months ago where the transition to larger cells for utility and commercial was actually leaving a dearth of supply in the smaller battery cells, and it was leading to price increases for small batteries, which was just interesting to see dynamics of an evolving market.
00:36:27.930 --> 00:36:30.390
So I want to do one more story, John. Take your pick.
00:36:30.990 --> 00:36:33.870
One more Wow, man.
00:36:30.990 --> 00:36:50.750
We're going so fast. All right, so we got a high voltage inverter. We got long duration batteries. Tariffs. We have another tariff story. Hey, let's. Talk about, let's talk about this new company that's going to put out transformers.
00:36:46.070 --> 00:36:55.430
There's a new group who's looking to sell a whole bunch of transformers. Oh, you know
00:36:57.290 --> 00:36:58.730
that story? Yeah.
00:36:58.730 --> 00:37:04.750
But I got the, yeah, we can do that one. You know what? My transformer story is not on here, so that's okay.
00:37:04.750 --> 00:37:11.050
We're we're just gonna skip it.
00:37:04.750 --> 00:37:19.150
Put pressure on me. Let's do the story one up, because this one's really important and applies to us the next solar import tariff.
00:37:14.530 --> 00:37:25.170
Okay, even though we started off the story line talking about no more tariffs, I'm predicting that one that's about to come.
00:37:23.130 --> 00:37:29.430
And everybody should be conscious of this, because this will affect your procurement, so if you're buying some modules,
00:37:29.430 --> 00:37:51.950
so let's just say it's this is a solar power, solar power world story by Kelly pickerel as solar, AC, CVD, adcbd. Investigation continues for India, Indonesia and Laos petitioners now cite critical circumstances. What is What does she mean by critical circumstances?
00:37:52.430 --> 00:38:02.750
Well, I'm going to share this, and you're going to see the critical circumstance, and it's going to be this right here, damn this is what they mean by critical circumstances.
00:38:02.750 --> 00:38:26.010
So this chart represents, you know, this is everything that was happening before a tariff hit right around here. So what I'm showing on the chart, on the screen, everybody, it's monthly imports of solar panels for silicon. Silicon panels, mostly from Southeast Asia, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
00:38:22.690 --> 00:40:19.930
And you can see from like January of 2024 through about October, you know, maybe even just end of the year, you can see that the volume just crashed. And then after the rulings of the terrorists last summer, you can see the volumes and all these other countries stayed down, except for one country, and that country is Indonesia. And if you go back to, let's say January of 2024, it looks like six megawatts of solar panels came from Indonesia. But last month, no, in December, no November, 2.5 mega gigawatts. That is the special circumstances that they're saying is like, listen, we tried to get rid of the tariffs. Now the whack a mole is happening again, and all the modules are moving to Indonesia, and now Indonesia is doing an end around on our tariffs. We need to file a lawsuit, and we need to fix it. And here's another one. We got modules coming from we got cells coming from Indonesia, and we got cells coming from this great country, South Korea. So these are the situations that these guys are going to sue about. They're going to be like, hey, you know, you need to protect us from everybody. South Korea's doing too many solar cells. This is going into Georgia and their facilities there and then Indonesia. So in essence, Indonesia sent in 1.5 gigawatts of solar cells after being at zero, like borderline zero, and 2.5 gigs of modules. So expect that those modules that you utility scale people are buying from Indonesia, and those cells that you module manufacturers are buying expect to get whacked. It's just going to come it's, it's what's next. So, so that's the critical circumstances that the solar module people are suing over.
00:40:22.090 --> 00:40:46.250
Yeah, I'm glad I don't work in the solar module space. It's hard business. It's, it's, it's hard enough helping my clients navigate this territory. And, you know, shout out to Chris. Let me I did an interview with him yesterday on the show floor at Imperial Star.
00:40:40.770 --> 00:41:13.450
Yeah, Chris has been on the show. He's a friend of the pod, but you know he What? What we see is you, if you're a module maker, now, you have to have a menu of options, right? You have domestic content, Fiat free, non domestic content, Fiat free, and then non domestic, non FIAC, free, three flavors, and that's just life as a solar module maker. Gotta do it.
00:41:15.970 --> 00:41:17.710
That's it. You're right. That's
00:41:18.070 --> 00:41:36.990
it. We'll be back in two weeks. John, any closing thoughts? Oh, I want our listeners to know that I will be in Milwaukee March 17, at the NABCEP conference. I'm hosting a reception. I would love it if you would fly out to Milwaukee, John and join me on March 17.
00:41:33.630 --> 00:42:16.810
I'll buy you a plane ticket, brother. I mean that in all sincerity, I will fly you to Milwaukee to join me. Me at the NABCEP reception that I'm hosting from six to 9pm in Milwaukee. Check it out at Clean Power Hour com, at the Events tab, okay, you can register for free. We have space for, I think, 70 people, and we're going to drink some Milwaukee beer and network our butts off with solar professionals. That's my only regret. John, from the last five years of being a consultant to the industry is not going to enough events, so I'm stepping on the gas. I'm also going to re plus southeast in Atlanta at the end of March.
00:42:17.050 --> 00:42:21.190
So if you're in the southeast, come see me in Atlanta.
00:42:22.870 --> 00:42:24.270
Big, ATL baby,
00:42:25.950 --> 00:42:34.290
very easy to get to right one of the biggest airports in the world. So John, how can our listeners find you?
00:42:35.270 --> 00:42:39.770
Commercialsolarguy.com, is our website. I'm on LinkedIn.
00:42:40.010 --> 00:43:00.155
John Fitzgerald Weaver, and apparently, and this is kind of cool, if you ask chat GPT, or something about who's the coolest, smartest, best looking solar expert, apparently I pop up on that list. It's kind of neat. I've had a couple of inbound leads people asking chat GPT, so apparently the AI you can find us as well. So so that's another
00:43:00.230 --> 00:43:02.450
place. How on earth did you pull that off?
00:43:02.450 --> 00:43:02.770
John,
00:43:03.190 --> 00:43:06.910
I you know what?
00:43:03.190 --> 00:43:13.990
I'm on the tubes. 24/7 man, so the machine sees me as like a brethren. It's like, Ah, you're fleshy, but you're a nerd. So we're gonna bring you in house.
00:43:13.990 --> 00:43:14.470
We need you.
00:43:16.450 --> 00:43:30.210
I love it. I love it, all right? John, well, thank you so much, and thank you all for being here. We had a good live audience today. So really appreciate everybody listening to the show and all of our content, of course, is at Clean Power Hour. With that, I'll say, let's grow solar and storage.
00:43:30.210 --> 00:43:31.890
I'm Tim Montague, thanks so much, John. You.
00:00:53.420 --> 00:01:03.679
00:01:04.159 --> 00:01:06.200
00:01:07.340 --> 00:01:11.180
00:01:07.340 --> 00:01:20.560
00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:35.640
00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:40.680
00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:44.280
00:01:40.680 --> 00:01:48.480
00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:50.159
00:01:52.140 --> 00:02:08.000
00:02:04.700 --> 00:02:28.300
00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:31.500
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:34.259
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:45.659
00:02:45.659 --> 00:03:09.080
00:03:10.819 --> 00:04:11.599
00:04:12.379 --> 00:05:01.460
00:05:01.639 --> 00:05:43.320
00:05:39.120 --> 00:06:06.019
00:06:01.820 --> 00:06:13.120
00:06:13.120 --> 00:07:22.240
00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:27.700
00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:33.779
00:07:31.200 --> 00:07:43.799
00:07:43.980 --> 00:09:22.720
00:09:19.539 --> 00:09:33.299
00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:39.059
00:09:39.059 --> 00:09:41.819
00:09:41.939 --> 00:09:47.819
00:09:48.240 --> 00:09:51.720
00:09:51.720 --> 00:10:44.399
00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:50.699
00:10:50.779 --> 00:11:22.179
00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:35.399
00:11:35.819 --> 00:12:07.819
00:12:07.819 --> 00:12:11.740
00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:11.740
00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:13.659
00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:21.159
00:12:21.339 --> 00:12:25.480
00:12:21.339 --> 00:12:26.259
00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:34.019
00:12:34.319 --> 00:12:50.579
00:12:50.579 --> 00:13:37.799
00:13:34.139 --> 00:13:46.500
00:13:43.139 --> 00:13:49.259
00:13:49.379 --> 00:13:52.038
00:13:52.039 --> 00:14:28.179
00:14:28.299 --> 00:14:37.980
00:14:38.519 --> 00:14:40.439
00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:42.839
00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:50.100
00:14:50.159 --> 00:14:52.699
00:14:52.879 --> 00:14:55.158
00:14:55.158 --> 00:14:59.298
00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:14.679
00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:18.579
00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:33.720
00:15:33.720 --> 00:16:05.600
00:16:05.779 --> 00:16:08.480
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:49.199
00:16:49.199 --> 00:17:16.480
00:17:12.519 --> 00:18:13.599
00:18:10.519 --> 00:18:13.599
00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:17.680
00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:49.680
00:18:45.720 --> 00:18:53.299
00:18:49.920 --> 00:20:01.639
00:20:03.500 --> 00:20:10.339
00:20:03.500 --> 00:20:16.660
00:20:10.339 --> 00:21:21.700
00:21:22.299 --> 00:21:40.980
00:21:35.759 --> 00:21:42.059
00:21:43.798 --> 00:21:45.719
00:21:45.719 --> 00:22:03.259
00:22:03.259 --> 00:22:13.838
00:22:10.459 --> 00:22:34.318
00:22:34.739 --> 00:22:39.778
00:22:40.138 --> 00:22:46.558
00:22:46.739 --> 00:23:04.278
00:22:59.178 --> 00:23:05.479
00:23:05.720 --> 00:23:08.779
00:23:09.259 --> 00:23:24.279
00:23:21.759 --> 00:23:35.819
00:23:35.819 --> 00:23:49.319
00:23:49.318 --> 00:23:55.699
00:23:55.878 --> 00:24:07.398
00:24:09.858 --> 00:24:13.239
00:24:09.858 --> 00:24:47.939
00:24:48.118 --> 00:25:03.078
00:24:58.219 --> 00:25:10.759
00:25:11.298 --> 00:26:11.297
00:26:11.356 --> 00:26:35.969
00:26:36.028 --> 00:26:43.429
00:26:40.588 --> 00:26:54.048
00:26:56.390 --> 00:26:59.630
00:26:56.390 --> 00:27:07.690
00:27:07.749 --> 00:27:10.808
00:27:11.230 --> 00:27:25.110
00:27:22.150 --> 00:27:29.130
00:27:29.130 --> 00:27:37.650
00:27:32.490 --> 00:27:55.250
00:27:55.308 --> 00:28:22.828
00:28:22.828 --> 00:28:29.848
00:28:30.269 --> 00:28:34.949
00:28:34.950 --> 00:28:38.549
00:28:34.950 --> 00:28:40.289
00:28:41.190 --> 00:28:46.430
00:28:46.730 --> 00:28:53.390
00:28:49.490 --> 00:29:40.529
00:29:40.529 --> 00:30:55.130
00:30:49.670 --> 00:31:25.350
00:31:26.430 --> 00:31:30.630
00:31:33.749 --> 00:31:45.500
00:31:42.861 --> 00:31:47.300
00:31:49.581 --> 00:31:51.141
00:31:51.800 --> 00:32:00.381
00:31:57.441 --> 00:32:00.381
00:32:00.862 --> 00:32:14.890
00:32:15.308 --> 00:32:30.209
00:32:30.450 --> 00:32:32.730
00:32:33.210 --> 00:32:56.029
00:32:57.110 --> 00:33:32.130
00:33:27.509 --> 00:33:32.610
00:33:32.610 --> 00:33:36.690
00:33:32.610 --> 00:33:40.710
00:33:41.489 --> 00:33:46.068
00:33:46.069 --> 00:33:50.269
00:33:46.069 --> 00:33:50.269
00:33:52.548 --> 00:34:11.228
00:34:11.528 --> 00:34:37.528
00:34:30.688 --> 00:34:57.889
00:35:00.588 --> 00:35:05.048
00:35:05.169 --> 00:35:13.809
00:35:14.350 --> 00:35:17.110
00:35:17.110 --> 00:35:19.690
00:35:19.690 --> 00:36:24.990
00:36:27.930 --> 00:36:30.390
00:36:30.990 --> 00:36:33.870
00:36:30.990 --> 00:36:50.750
00:36:46.070 --> 00:36:55.430
00:36:57.290 --> 00:36:58.730
00:36:58.730 --> 00:37:04.750
00:37:04.750 --> 00:37:11.050
00:37:04.750 --> 00:37:19.150
00:37:14.530 --> 00:37:25.170
00:37:23.130 --> 00:37:29.430
00:37:29.430 --> 00:37:51.950
00:37:52.430 --> 00:38:02.750
00:38:02.750 --> 00:38:26.010
00:38:22.690 --> 00:40:19.930
00:40:22.090 --> 00:40:46.250
00:40:40.770 --> 00:41:13.450
00:41:15.970 --> 00:41:17.710
00:41:18.070 --> 00:41:36.990
00:41:33.630 --> 00:42:16.810
00:42:17.050 --> 00:42:21.190
00:42:22.870 --> 00:42:24.270
00:42:25.950 --> 00:42:34.290
00:42:35.270 --> 00:42:39.770
00:42:40.010 --> 00:43:00.155
00:43:00.230 --> 00:43:02.450
00:43:02.450 --> 00:43:02.770
00:43:03.190 --> 00:43:06.910
00:43:03.190 --> 00:43:13.990
00:43:13.990 --> 00:43:14.470
00:43:16.450 --> 00:43:30.210
00:43:30.210 --> 00:43:31.890
